oldtime, At what percentage of draw down do you have to change your depends? 10% 20% 30% more? Just worried it's on its way? You've been around long enough to know the next drawdown is on it's way. I guess the " I finally made it" feeling in this business is rare during a draw down and can be dangerous during equity peaks.
I don't compute my drawdown the way most people do. I compute it from the all time new high. 10 to 20% is normal, and even to be expected. If it goes more than 30% then I revert back to where I was before I put this miserable trade on. no, I never shit my pants. I've seen enough big paper profits turn into a loss to worry about a big loss that may turn into a profit. what I worry about is being consistently on the wrong side of a trend and relying on good trading to get you out of it. not too worried about being on the wrong side of a trend worried that what I thought was good trading was nothing more than being on the right side
Maybe your system needs updating? Losers don't often get win streaks that last months. You're doing something(s) right, and your old strategy doesn't reflect the new logic...? All trading is - adding to an identified trend, and/or catching reversals.
re read your post now that I am sober again this morning. There is some good trading wisdom in there. I made it all day trading ES and there wasn't much time to think about things. Since I started trading again, I got into forex where I hold positions days, weeks, or even months, and there is a lot of time to think. But yes, you are correct. "The next drawdown is just on it's way."
I guess the one positive thing is, I don't really keep track of numbers, because they kind of spook me if they are good, and can jinx me if they are bad. I've been trading this forex system since NOV 2011 and didn't have a losing month until SEP 2012. At JUL 2012 I got out the calculator and figured I was up 58% since JAN 2012. And AUG was very good and put me up to something like 72%. Then in SEP I got on the wrong side of EUR AUD and BEN, and lost 20% on just one trade. Since then I have been able to work myself back up. But when I look back at the charts, I have to ask myself, "What if you had gone the other way? You'd still be trying to climb out of a hole." So maybe that answers the question yeah the trading is ok, but it sure helps when you are on the right side
I only post because there are a lot of kids out there who pm me who think just because I am old that somehow I have it all figured out Attiude is very important It is very imporatant to disassociate yourself from degenerate gamblers. I'm not one, but I play one on the internet. We got to talking the other day about the 1987 crash. Gambling is fun, but it's not part of trading. They don't tell many stories about the times you traded properly (which is like 99% of the time), but they do enjoy telling stories about the 1% of the time you gambled.
otherwise, when I look back on my last year, I have to ask myself, "Are you a good trader, or just a lucky gambler?" Like I said, I haven't been trading forex that long, so only time will tell. but I really like forex, I wish they had invented it back when I was young If anybody I cared about asked me how to get started in trading I would tell them, "Check out forex."
I'm working on something now which trades nothing more than wheat, corn and beans you'd be surprised how liquid they have become
I like trading things that people actually need, like crude or swiss francs or corn. I don't actually need shares of McDonalds or Apple, but I do understand that it is fun to bet on them. Especially if you are like most people and like to bet they are going up.