oldtime gets worried

Discussion in 'Forex' started by oldtime, Oct 20, 2012.

  1. 2012 so far has been a very good year for me, but I have been running the same system opposite in my paper account and it has really been taking it in the shorts, which gets me worrried that my trading is not good, and the only thing saviing me is I have guessed right and the market has accomodated.

    Guessing is one thing
    Trading is another

    You would like to have the confidence your trading can keep you alive

    Even if you guess bad

    I am very new to forex so I don't know how the deal is going to work out

    But I am very worried

    Nobody can make the kind of money I've been making eternally

    There's got to be some kind of catch to it

    (I think it has something to do with the US dollar)
     
  2. You feel the markets your trading are changing, and you had to compensate by going against the system you've been using for so long?
     
  3. no, there's a very important component which says, "Stick with what has been working for you."

    But it's difficult to understand how much success is due to trading techniques and how much is due to to simply guessing right.

    The trading techiniques don't change, but the guessing can go either way.
     
  4. It' s all a gamble, if your making good money stick with what your doing until it doesnt work any more.
     
  5. yeah, that's cool, I traded for 13 years doing that, then I blew up, and and had to do 9 years hard labor working in the real work force, until I could come up with a stash and 2 years living expenses.

    After scalping ES for 7 years,and just about darn near losing my mind I finally got lucky.

    You talk about it like it is so easy.

    I know where I am at now

    And I know where I don't want to go back to

    but yes, you are correct, it's all just a gamble

    I never like to discourage, because I got too much of that, and I always like to encourage, because I got too little of that

    but the point is, I'm not so sure my trading techniques are that good. If I had used them on the other side I would be looking for a job again.

    And that is why I am worried.
     

  6. So which is it oldtime... do you actually have a trading "system" -OR- is your trading "system" just "guessing"?

    I get the feeling it is the later. Trading is statistical probabilities. All the argument one can muster does not change the outcome.
    Confidence vs Worry. System vs Guessing. Live vs. Memorex. Soft 17, hit or stay?
     
  7. well, if it was a bonafide backtested robust system I wouldn't be worried would I?
     
  8. So with all due respect, if you want chicken don't order frog legs.

    You have been lucky up til now.
    Make it robust and stop worrying.
    Or move on because "trading" ain't your thang.
     
  9. I'm not so worried about the system. Systems come and go. I'm worried about my trading techniques. They should work if you guess right or wrong. And like I said, they are working great in my real account, where I apparently have guessed right, and really hurting in my paper account where I purposely guessed wrong.

    and "trading technique" is just a code word for loss prevention

    I pretty much have the "profit taking" thing down

    so I guess you could say, I'm not comfortable with my loss prevention program

    can't get something without giving up somesthing else
     
  10. you may be right, everything I have to show for myself is the result of luck, or what some call the "trend".

    I believe luck is a force which can temporarlly be harnesed and you can live day to day if you protect yourself from "bad luck".

    I call it luck, and bad luck

    some call it the trend and the chop.

    the problem with trading the chop is, you end up just like Darth Vader.
     
    #10     Oct 20, 2012