Older I get, Less I understand... why is market up when Moore lost, rates likely going higher?

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by iceman1, Dec 13, 2017.

  1. Wow...I missed that trend line...I'll have to take another swing at that.

    While it's a good point, I wouldn't say it's necessarily relevant to my argument. I'm more concerned about shorter time frames as far as predicting future growth. I.e, comparing 1935 to 1925, and 2005 to 1995.

    Single components broadly reflect the same pattern without the index manipulation (honestly, my first critique of the Dow would be price weighting before looking to the components).
     
    #21     Dec 13, 2017
  2. It is understandable that each person is free to speculate what they want, but apparently, here was not successful in their future. The only thing we know is that cryptocurrencies are about to seize the market. The bankers are desperate because they can not find a way to end this fiebra, so do not let me inform you there is no cure!
     
    #22     Dec 13, 2017
  3. Ok, so the first chart I posted didn't show up right for me, so I'll link direct to the article containing it: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dows-tumultuous-120-year-history-in-one-chart-2017-03-23

    And the second doesn't seem right because of the linear scale. In the chart below, the line is aligned to the 1954 (Eisenhower Interstate) and 1994 pivots to bubbles. Note 1987 and 2008 also conform nicely to this line. If you go back further, it's a bit below the 1924 pivot--but that's probably the price weighting of the Dow. Here's a revised one (SPX, not Dow):
    SPX.jpg
     
    #23     Dec 13, 2017
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.
  4. No. The tax bill is buoying the market it seems. SO if moore gets defeated and Susan Collins is waffling and one more republican waivers - then no tax bill.

    Keynes is right again... !
     
    #24     Dec 14, 2017
  5. I knew wewould hear about "seasonal" market strength. But that is not what this is since if you observe the empirically "weaker" months this market still went higher and higher... and so on!

    Tudor Jones quote makes sense for what we are seeing now. Thanks for that quote.
     
    #25     Dec 14, 2017
  6. I know I may sound cliche saying this, but...the Market is part art, part science...everyday, each unique chart.
    The quicker you realize this, the better you'll be off.

    If the market was logical and square and easily predictable...everyone would be driving around in Ferrari's and have diamonds and alligator shoes and constantly high-fiving everyone around them.

    You have to have a dynamic, loose, malleable mindset trading the market.
    Have directional convictions before they semi-happen, along with the supporting triggering variables.

    Be a cold-blooded, snake in the bushes just calmly patiently waiting...and watching...that ticker chart ball move to the right...you'll know when to strike.

    Quite frankly, if you've been this long in the market and haven't succeeded yet, or realized its lessons and wisdoms,...chances are you will never. and are much better off just investing, buying and holding, for the long haul.

    Make Trading Great Again 2018,
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2017
    #26     Dec 14, 2017
  7. qxr1011

    qxr1011

    Actually he is wrong again. :)

    Market is always rational , people just not always understand its rational and the reasons behind it and therefore call the market irrational.

    So the phrase should be rephrased : "Market can remains unexplainable much longer that you can stay solvent."
     
    #27     Dec 14, 2017
  8. tomorton

    tomorton

    News headlines and strap-lines create a false association between events and price moves. The word "as" is often a give-away: the journalist associates the two factors mentioned without being able to say they are cause and effect - but the psychological seed is planted.
    e.g.
    "Pound slips as inflation seen breaking 3%"
    "Sterling rises as UK inflation jumps to 2.9%"
     
    #28     Dec 14, 2017
    beerntrading and Sig like this.
  9. Sig

    Sig

    So Keynes would say that stimulating an economy that's already doing well with very low unemployment and incurring debt that makes it less possible to do this during the next economic downturn would be lunacy. Are you saying that the markets realize this and are going up (or at least not going down) because they think the tax bill may fail and that's a good thing?
     
    #29     Dec 14, 2017
  10. Banjo

    Banjo