i am still around and about to enter back into trading for funds as a hobby. i have taken some time off from commercial trading and am kinda rested up and ready to kill it again. i have never been far out of touch as evidence by my response here. after zillions of man hours of computer testing i have discovered a few families of algo's that always make money. i plan on writing an article about a new program i have which is to trading systems what a killer whale is to other aquatic life. as the market is now 60% algo trading mostly stuff i know intimately, i have now created a system killer system which preys upon all these other systems. it's better than trading against the mindless PAPER of old days. i love the worlds predictable trading advancements, i look down on them from my time machine. m
Zillions of hours testing, finding a system that always makes money, and the first thing you want to do is write an article about it?
yes of course you must understand something after all these years of trading. no one will use a published method even if it works, and if they do as in the case of oddball it will eventually be destroyed by it's own success. m
perfect example - every stupid turtle trader will endure draw down just shortly after placing their trades. they always get slippage on their entries. knowing this you counter trade their entries for a small short term profit. explore other such possibilities and you'll be a busy person.
The edge in the turtle methodology is mostly their discipline. They are trend-followers. Most of them who are running funds did not have more than 2 or 3 small losing years since 1990. It appears it is the best method for managing money. Some analysis with references for return data can be found in this blog http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2010/11/the-bootstrap-method-for-hypothesis-testing/ Two of the funds with superb returns mentioned in the blog were founded by former turtles. Hawksbill Capital was founded by Tom Shanks and Chesapeake Capital was founded by Jerry Parker. There are many more. I don't agree with some parts of the analysis but this is another issue.