A top Ralphs executive was interviewed on TV and was asked about food prices. This was at the peak of the Corona Virus. It used to cost us $7,000 a container van filled with groceries for one shipment, now it costs $18,000 a container van. Oil prices has been rising, it has gone down some and I believe it is part manipulation by releasing huge amounts of oil from the US strategic oil reserve. Just about 3 weeks ago, the US sold oil to Europe and China of all countries. No explanation whatsoever. Personally, I think it is a political ploy by Joe Biden with the midterm elections coming and oil prices still high. OPEC just announced cuts in its oil production. Oil is inflationary, used to haul all sorts of stuff we need by the trucking companies who are paying more for diesel fuel as we pay more for gas. Grocery stores will continue to pass the shipping cost to consumers by raising food prices. Dollar is going down in value which is why the cost of everything you buy now in the grocery stores keeps going up.
Markets are toast man. Larger players are clearly selling both in a constant and consistent manner, very akin to 2008 mortgage crisis. Just pull up a weekly, even by any TA standard or by a simple eye test it isn't very hard to see. Clearly they either know or think something is up (not that it takes a genius to see that we're in a lot of potential crap).
Once again the question is asked... You did not answer the challenge, as all you do is come back with rhetoric. You have fallen into the category of another fake trader who talks the talk, but does not walk the walk. You are all bluster.
My trade Thesis - not trying to brag, but since you asked: * figured Sept rally was gamma squeeze, put options 4X OI over the 2008 crash- extreme fear on last leg down. * seemed like the squeeze was nearing exhaustion based on recent options open interest, volume & P/C ratio. * sentiment reversed fast in Sep from overly bearish to bullish, potential bull trap. * by luck found Adobe CPI estimate for a higher Aug #. This gave me more conviction. * because I had a nice run going YTD I was o.k. taking more risk on this trade. The trades: * shorted with -22 MNQ in 2 accounts. positioned in the Euro session over a span of a few hours. * risked $3,000 - not using a hard stop at first, manual monitored the initial reaction before placing stop loses. * projected the first CPI spike would be a rinse job, luckily it did not run all that far. * once the trade had a good profit placed stops on near break even & went to sleep - so tired. * my profit target was 450 points based on prior reports that missed - a guesstimate. * the trades to cover at target filled from limit orders with an audible alert which woke me up. There was an element of luck for sure. I am sure plenty made a mint on the rally up, I missed out on a lot of it. This one trade is just another brick in the wall.
One of the few here who actually knows his stuff.. your thesis makes sense It was a thrill to see SQQQ UVXY skyrocket at 8:30, gotta love it
I went out to the Farmer's market last week. Everything claimed as "locally grown". I picked up 4 apricots for $6. And they weren't even that good. Just put him on ignore and move on. Your time will be better spent elsewhere.
Thanks for the detailed response. Would you say that this trade was a rare opportunity? I take it there isn't one of these setups every week, maybe not even once a month? So was this an outlier for you? Would most other trades be a fraction of this one here in terms of PnL or simply the number of points you would usually take?
Some traders like to use a lot of leverage to magnify smaller moves - some like taking less risk while aiming for larger moves which suites me better. The more volatile/liquid symbols you track the more opportunities you can find to get into big breakouts, but you also have more decisions, more noise, different price action, & it may feel overwhelming. Was this an outlier? I have not made this much from a day trade since 1999 when I used to go all in on the hot stocks not knowing better back than ... which is why I blew up. My CPI trade risk was high, the R:R (14:1) was good but not epic for a day trade. Would the other trades be a fraction of the size? Yes for day trades, the best swing trades are much larger. My avg weekly is 3.7% in 2022, lucky to not be on the roller coaster for now anyway. I prefer to risk much smaller the majority of the time, but will swing for the fences every once in a while when I think I have enough ducks lined up in a row.
comagnum, Given your organized nature and all, sometime if you'd start a thread where you and others outline a general overview of processes for managing this task the brew's are on me.
I did and I shorted it. The signs were mostly on the daily chart for the ES and the 4H chart for the Dow. This is not something that I’m gonna argue about nor try to go out of my way to prove. If you don’t believe me, then that’s even better for me.