Well, which is it? That's the problem with stupid assumptions, baseless accusations and wishful thinking I guess. Fact is I've been long EUR/USD seven times and short four times just today. Stopped out three times, twice at a loss and one at a profit with a trailing stop. Had one other loser I closed out manually. The other eight were closed with gains. Along with AUD and JPY trades I managed a 4.35% net gain. All while you're bragging about some dopey "model" no one that wasn't born yesterday would even care to hear about.
Maybe one or the other of you lost money. Maybe you made money. Doesn't matter, since we are all on a freaking Internet forum and there's no way to verify either way. So, can we get back to talking about the EURUSD itself rather than pointless trolling about whether someone is or is not full of it? Pic related: http://i.imgur.com/cYvYX.jpg My question remains; people here universally said "ignore fundamentals when trading." Soros (who has made a lot more money trading currency than anyone here) claims in "Alchemy of Finance" that he trades on the basis of exactly the sort of fundamental analysis I attempted in my first post. So, what are the possibilities? 1) Soros was incredibly lucky; his money was made by coincidence, his fundamental analyses were irrelevant to his success one way or another. Soros is just confirmation bias at work. 2) Soros' analysis is OK but not great; he simply found a slight edge that allowed him to win more than he lost (implies that there is a way to get "good enough" at fundamental currency analysis to make it useful) 3) Soros is lying and he actually profited off of inside information or market manipulation or whatever. What do you think?
I would rather be looking at how much a fund manager made from management fees. I believe that trading is a negative sum game. Brokers/managers/etc are likely the ones who make money. What makes think that Soros made money trading?
Well, that's what he claims to have done in his books, and his funds showed an externally audited average 30%+ annual trading record while he was running them.... is all that a big lie, did he pay off hundreds of people at the auditors just so he could rake in management fees?
As an aside, I make no claims that trends need to be the same length or amplituded. I am just observing that the market seems to be being pulled to 1.5150, which happens to be a very important resistance point in a number of longer term time frames. If you put a gun to my head, i would predict that E/U will trade there relatively soon. I also believe that levels, held or breached, tend to lead to price action moving toward the next logical level. I believe that a violation and hold of 1.5150, will target the 08 highs. Past this point of all time absolute price highs, who knows? Swing Equality, retracement equality? hard to pick a target. All that said, I believe we are in for some massive icreases in volatility as we begin to test this key level. Would it suprise me to see E sell off hard in here? Absolutely not, in fact i would view a hard retrace as healthy. Keying on the long term nature of the upcoming resistance level, there have to be massive standing limit orders and option pegs (including Knockouts) coming up very soon. There is danger and great opportunity in this market.
wow, who could short this market? Just broke through 1.48 like it was nothing, will probably try 49 before europe even opens. Here's the thing, these type of moves aren't that common. You know, when painfully obvious chart points get penetrated and markets just run with no pain or heat. It is like nirvana. why the fuck would you ever fade it until at least a prior low get violated? Journal, u ae going to crushed.
Quote from tradingjournals: "1.4819. I am shorting it now. real-time." Looks like he deleted his post/"trade". THAT is funny. I guess he hoped no one would notice. Epic Fail tj. It also reaffirms what I already suspected, he's a complete fraud, poser and liar just seeking praise and adulation for his BS predictions.