This entire situation has me very freaked out. What is Bernanke not telling us? Are they pinning down the front of the curve becasue the banks are in much worse shape than anyone thought and they need the curve to continue to steepen to survive and avoid another crisis? Is the EuroZone, with all tis problems the new responsible party? The chart says yes.
The definition is hype is going contrarian contrarians. Retails are short. Contrarians are long. Contrarian contrarians are short.
Retails are short? This thread is full of retail, and the majority is bullish eur/usd. In addition, you are long and you are retail. So how come you state retail are short?
You made a good post, but I disagree with it because it assumes the past trend will be the future trend. What if we are at or near the end (at least short term)? I believe that 1.4780 to 1.4880 would see smart money distributing their merchandise.
Lucrumair never went above 1.4784 since the post. So far +10 pips for me. My models are winning again, and you are losing again.
COT two weeks old? In addition, back in the bottom of 1.19ish, COT said majority of retail long, and they were right.