If you haven't noticed, i trade patterns so i will not consider turning bullish until the proverbial Low, High, Higher Low, Higher High plays out in the time frame I trade. I dont go down lower than 30 Minutes so.............I take shorts or nothing for what looks like a while. To answer your question though, next support is around .4200. I imagine it could rally to .4400 first, but the plan in my opinion, is figuring out a way to profit on a move to 4200. Price action price action price action price action.............................................
sorry journal, there is also minor support at around .4375, that might give you a tradable bounce, if youre into that kind of thing.
The more I think about it, the fundamentals of this very crowded trade "changed" so much yesterday, that who knows? Fed and ECB call the tune, we all must dance to it. To paraphrase Soros. This trade went from Trichet being the watchdog and anchor to helicopter Ben, to him now being his getaway driver. That is a very big change conceptually, especially after the first rate cut. To not raise or cut in consistent matter, leaves the market confused and jittery. It makes sense for Big Specs and Real Money to take this trade down. Who knows? We live in a very fickle world.
Here we go. Nearing crucial support. Who wants to hold EUR into the weekend, noone if we breach .4375. Could get ugly.
Jesus journal, I give you a level that led to a 30 pip bounce with only 5 pips of heat. You owe me a beer.
So I guess the lesson is that what is 'ridiculous' is likely to move far further in the same direction Could be a profitable trading strategy there.
No doubt. When people don't "get" why something is so high, you can be sure it will go higher for a while. Usually just long enough for them tho reevaluate their outlook, so they can buy the high tick.