I don't think the OP found his niche yet, you may want to test demo as many strategies as you can using strict discipline (avoid your own weaknesses) for each trade; the plan is to find one that works and stick with it, one only. The successful strategy may not be the one that can get you in trades everyday but it can be an edge that will give you better than 50% probable winners. As bad as you are with discipline and no winning strategy, you're better off staying away from ES to ER... and find other smoother market instruments to trade instead. sg20
What you need is a great youtube video or blog to follow from a top trader...Here is one youtube video that I follow daily and you can pay this guy to mentor you. <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/AcA4EYIvfeM&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/AcA4EYIvfeM&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
You are absolutely correct illiquid ... in terms of the probabilities of any single, individual trade being profitable (however the trader defines the term) being <> 50% is an illusion ... any single trade is always a 50/50 proposition. However, when you analyze your trades as a group a distinct pattern will emerge, and: i) trades taken with a solid edge will as a group deliver a higher than 50% probability of being a sucess; and ii) trades taken against a solid edge will as a group deliver a lower than 50% probablity of being a success ... ... provided you have an edge which yields such results. *** It is the ability to take their trades in a cosistent fashion and trade their system which seperates the WINNERS from the LOSERS in this game ... and this is (as stated) the OP's greatest flaw in his trading, and what has led to his demise. I hope the OP learned something from this exchange, and I hope he doesn't quit, and I hope he turns around and helps someone else when it's his turn. Thanks for the conversation.
What I meant was any single trade is more like a 100/0 proposition -- either you know the situation and make the right trade, or you lose money/break even/make a little bit, depending on how "lucky" your entry was. The vast majority of struggling traders are in the latter camp, trying to break the "roulette wheel" of the markets. I hope that makes more sense out of the rest of my post for you. Practically speaking, 51/49 is not enough in this business, at least not for the individuals. There's a trader in my office that is profitable 19 out of 20 days each and every month, you can be sure he is not betting on "probabilities" over the long run -- it goes much further than that. Last edit: I don't post this just to make conversation, but hopefully the OP will realize the nature of the game he is trying to play, and perhaps try again in the future from a different angle.
Keep in mind that day trading S&P is not for everyone. If you like a slower market you might want to try swing trade instead; it's less stressful, less screen time, plus having a more active and meaningful life, much better than staring at the computer day after day... There are many markets to trade from, so pick your own favorites to trade with. sg20
To continue posting on topic: 4DTrader, you are half-way up the mountain ... you can continue in the hopes of eventually reaching the summit (never a gaurantee, and many many many have tried, and continue to do so) or you can turn around and go back down the way you came. Your choice.
If you are going to quit you should be very proud of yourself. I kid you not, the reality is that most retail traders have no idea about what they are doing and they are looking for excitement more than to make money consistently. I am a professional trader, so far this year my account is up 38% and as I mentioned some other times often I feel like I am stealing candies from kids. Here some of the things that helped me to get where I am now. 1) I love what I do, even if I made less money I would still do this 2) I have the rare luck of learning from another professional trader, after quitting with him, I will do things on my own 3) I have a capitalized account, think six figures, doesn't matter how much we try to get it right, as soon as we start doing something new we will make mistakes. A capitalized account helps you to survive while you correct your mistakes 4) I have found some tools that helps me to get the job done 5) I have an edge, in my case it is about trades with high probability of success, I am non directional, I do not have an opinion about the market, my goal is to make money every month, I am going to give up on home runs, all I want is to hit the singles every time. 6) I have a plan Everything I mentioned it is only a starting point there is more to trading, that's why most people will fail. What I do is one thing, there are 100 ways to make money and 1000 ways to lose it. By being humble enough, you show that you are wiser than most people who keep trying with average results at best. You show that you accept the harsh reality and it is a great start to get better at anything. My suggestion to you is to look for a good mutual fund, believe it or not there are a few out there, and they have , in a long time frame, a much better performance than the performance of most of the people on this board. Hope, is all most people got. The fact that one really really hopes/wants to win the lottery does not mean that he is going to. When someone does win there is a lot of buzz a picure is on the paper, everyone gets excited and many many new players will show up, however at the end of the day who makes the money is the casino. I am the casino. My trading certainly lacks of all the glamour and excitement, but...it works. If you saw a lot of grammar mistakes it is because English is not my first language, but in my opinion you are doing the right thing. Stop trading today !