My reply is inlne below: QUOTE="terr, post: 5556898, member: 5325"]I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like this is all not real. The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine are main producers of wheat in the world, this year the harvest will be a lot less, and the logistics problems will peak the catastrophe). Not to minimize Russia’s and Ukraines’s contribution to the world’s food supply and possibility or effects of a global famine, from what I can see, mass famine seems unlikely unless there is escalation. I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation (Ukraine invasion), but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis - this is my area, so I will explain. We were pressured lately to fit our reports to the requirements of the higher-ups - I already discussed this. All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Big chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – they were hiding it from everyone. Here is an example: Let's say you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of protecting your prisons and camps in case of a meteorite attack. You ask "really, meteorites"? Yes, they say - that's just a formality for our files, of course it won't happen. You understand that the report is just to check the box, so you write it in a bombastic style, so there won't be questions why you think everything is so bad, you're not doing a good job. So you write a report that in case of a meteorite attack we have everything, we're ready, we're great, everything's perfect. Then you concentrate your work on the actual real problems - you're overworked as is. But then all of a sudden there are actual meteorites and everyone expects that things should happen according to your report, which was complete bullshit. That is why it's a total clusterfuck - I don't even want to try to find another word. There is no defense against the sanctions for the same exact reasn - ok, so Nabibullina will be blamed for that (or, more likely, people from her team) but how are they guilty? No one knew such a war was possible, so no one prepared for such sanctions. This is the flipside of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it? Great points. The severity of the sanctions that would be imposed was grossly miscalculated. Perhaps if Putin made it clear in the beginning he was intending only to annex those areas controlled by pro Russian forces, NATO would not have been as galvanized. Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to have received intel from the FSB on his troops' movements in the first days of the operation. They were absolutely demolished while on the march even before they had a chance to fight, just blown to pieces in several places. And now FSB is blamed that it sent the info to the Ukrainians. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely. Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is simply impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country - yes, the Ukrainian resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. In theory. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: who are we going to make agreements with? If it is with Zelenskt, then the agreement is not worth the paper it is written on. ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate. Medvedchuk, the coward, ran away like a dog. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryov, but even pro-Russian guys are against him. Bring back Yanukovich? But how? If we are saying we can’t occupy, then any newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave. To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics. There’s a rule - if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would have been the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist. And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons: 1) Full mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social. 2) Our logistics are already strained today. We can send a much larger contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and the level of hatred towards us is off the scale. Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the chaos. These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything. With regards to Russian military losses: I don't know how many. No one knows. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major troop formations. They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000. But even at our central command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses with the DNR & LNR troops - they have their own counts. Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hatred toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those who were loyal to us in Ukraine are against us. Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first. Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were initially just preparing internal protests against Zelensky in Ukraine. Without ever taking into consideration our direct entrance. Invasion, in simple terms. Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. We tried entering cities with infantry – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one was somewhat successful. Remember the invasion of Mosul - it’s a rule, happens with every country, nothing new. Siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example - cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time Our provisional deadline is June. Provisional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left. By and large, next week there will be a collapse in Russia either for or against the war, simply because current tension is unsustainable. We have no analysis for this, you cannot analize chaos, no one can predict anything with any certainty. To act through intuition, especially with high emotions, this is no poker game. But our bets will have to grow in size with hope that some option will succeed. The tragedy is that we can easily miscalculate, and as a result lose everything. Big picture: Russia does not have an out. There is no path to a victory, and if we lose - it's catastrophic. It is a false dilemma to believe that Russian withdrawal from Ukraine would be a catastrophic loss. Emotionally it would hurt of course, but the path for Russia’s recovery would be clear. Russian takeover and occupation of Ukraine along with continuing, if not increasing sanctions, shows no reasonable path towards recovery. 100% we’ve repeated our mistake from the start of last century, when we decided to kick the weakling Japan and achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity. Then, we started a "war till the victorious end", then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army - they were on the margins and no one cared about them. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans and started doing such things... From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we would send our criminals to the front. If you conscript career criminals and the socially undesirables, and political prisoners - the morale of the army will go below zero. The enemy (Ukraine) is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable middle-tier commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world. That's all. What we are afraid of the most: at the top they are trying to use the method of masking an old problem with a new problem. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – we needed to distract the West from the Russian spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis was created in order to pull in all of the West's attention and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria - this is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems. As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away, the "Southern Stream" was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging on us – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless. I don’t know who came up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had we received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is iffy, and that much has to be rechecked. A lot had to be rechecked. Now we are in shit up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have clearly formulated parameters by which meeting or not meeting the objectives can be determined. Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war. And what if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika. Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike (in Ukraine)? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help - such weapons are for breach of the defenses, nothing more. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West). They are pushing to prepare the ground to blame the nuclear strike on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is doing everything to "prove" that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K - they are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed repeatedly and closed the book on: we can’t just make up any evidence out of thin air of existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret. Even a "dirty bomb" can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the Plutonium as a by-product in minimal amounts, but the Americans have such monitoring at these plants with IAEA that even talking about this is stupid. In my personal opinion, Russian escalation, including Belarus, will be met by NATO escalation. I seriously doubt NATO would “First use” a WMD, but can well imagine a strong countermeasure being taken, perhaps for an asymmetrical advantage by the attacking Russian Navy and establishing a no fly zone over Ukraine. We are in a new era. It would be a shame to throw everything away by repeating past mistakes. Do you know what will start in a week? Maybe two weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s. The stock market is closed, Nabibullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a damb with your fingers. It will just blow up even stroner. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 10 days any longer. The sooner Russia gets out of Ukraine, the sooner recovery can begin. Continuing to throw away resources in an unsound endeavor has been already established to be a losing proposition; the choice with the worse possible outcome. Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs for a reason. They have their own adventures. He created an image for himself as the most influential and invincible – and if he falls down even once his own people will remove him. Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our troops stationed there may run out of supplies, and then there will be such a crash... Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please note – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis. Another possibility is Russia has opened the door for “NATO Middle East adventurism”, since sovereignty is apparently no longer respected by certain leading United Nations member states. Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine. Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes it feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before. With regards to prisons – it will get worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood bursts. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation. Sounds like another miscalculation to me. Should Russian leadership decide to “Declare war” on her own people, the breakup of Russia is all but guaranteed, in my opinion. So we go from Putin wanting to reform the old Soviet Union to nothing? We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try sprinting like that in a marathon. And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon. And this is a rather brief overview of the current events. To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world. First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button. Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems. I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years. Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it’s due to Putin's fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If Putin is scared for the most trusted people to be near him, then how could he possibly choose to destroy himself and those dearest to him?[/QUOTE I note the author did not mention China. Russia’s Chinese neighbor, with its 1.4 billion people has an interest in a sustainable resolution to the Ukrainian crisis. I am sure food security are on the top of China’s mind. The possible exchange of WMDs between Russia and NATO are probably not too far from their thoughts either. Assuming NATO’s assessments of our current situation are similar to the author’s, The need to create a face-saving offramp for Putin seems clear. How much, or even any, including possibly Crimea, of Ukraine Putin retains should be negotiated. I mention Crimea mainly because I wonder the people of Crimea would rather be associated with Ukraine instead of Russia in light of recent events and as a negotiation tactic. Obviously discussion and agreement on sanctions, permissible troop movements including war games, and respect of international law are fundamentally necessary. From what it sounds like, the clock is ticking. So let’s call for an immediate cease fire and start negotiating for the benefit of Ukraine, Russia, and possibly the world.
You're right, but so long as China, Russia and India keep belching out emissions there isn't much we can do about it, and they don't give two shits about CO2 in the air. The more immediate problem is Putin using a tactical nuke in Ukraine and what are we going to do about it? Nothing, that's what. What can we do, light them up? Not going to happen. Ground invasion? Maybe, but that's no picnic either. Continue the financial squeeze. Yes, but eventually he strikes back with his own Cyber war and turning the lights out in western Europe. Then what? We're in for some big time worldwide suffering and America isn't going to escape that. Bottom line, we're running out of road to keep kicking then can down it.
Oh come on man, now you're just being stupid. ...The S&P would only gap 400 points. Yeah true, but in this case however, I doubt the FSB guy that wrote it would have put in the part about how he doubted Putin would hit the big red button; and that their stuff might be in huge disrepair. Seems counterintuitive to either Russia's or Ukraine's agenda. Who knows though. _______________________ >>> This alien thing though. Cramer: "Nobert from the Netherlands... Noooobert!" Nobert: "Hi Jim, boooyah. Long time listener, first time caller. Jim with this increase in sightings of extra-terrestrial vehicles over Europe, what do you think about buying Tesla as a long term hold?" Cramer: "I think Elon Musk has a handle on this and I'm a buyer! Next caller... Ocho from ET... Ooocho!" Ocho: "Jim what's your take on Victoria's Secret?"
haha I know I was kidding... when the text becomes slangy or filled with colloqual speech the translation sounds like Yoda talking
(laughs) Me calling Cramer. That's creative. Would never think of that. His response would be like, - timestamped