Ok boys...this is how its going to go down! (I'm talking about the USD!)

Discussion in 'Economics' started by peilthetraveler, Nov 18, 2008.

  1. This train has left the station. For those of us that know where this train is headed, we can still jump off and save ourselves. Unfortunately most of America does not know this train is headed for that unfinished bridge over the grand canyon. Most of America figures we are spending 700 billion and that the bridge will be built by the time the train crosses it. I dont think so. This train is heading there way too quick and we didnt put brakes on this engine! Its going off the edge, and there is almost nothing that can stop it.

    I have to tell you, I am watching currencies VERY carefully right now. Look at other countries whos currency has collapsed and see how it moved. There was always big swings, right before the collapse.

    Lets take for instance Germany in the 1920s. Lets look at how the rate of exchange went.

    Feb 1920 100 marks to $1
    Apr 1920 60 marks to $1
    Jun 1920 40 marks to $1 (see how the mark had come back 60% so fast? Not unlike the way the dollar has come back some 30% vs other countries in a few months!)

    Oct 1920 70 marks to $1
    Jan-jun 1921 57-75 marks to $1
    Oct. 1921 124-180 to $1
    Jan 1922 200 to the $1
    Jun 1922 500 to the $1
    Oct 1922 about 4,000 to $1
    Jan 1923 Trading between 6800 and 48,000 to the $1
    Jun 1923 193,000 to the dollar
    Aug 1923 11 million to the dollar
    Oct 1923 250 million to the dollar
    Dec 1923 3.4 billion to 5.72 billion to the dollar
    Jan 1924 4.7 billion to the dollar and then the new currency came out.

    Hard to say where we are at on this table exactly, but if i had to guess, i would say we are in the June of 1920 area. If we hyperinflated like this, then in 3 years all you would have to do is have about 3 ounces of gold and it would pay off the 10.2 trillion dollar deficit. Do i think it could get THAT bad? No. If i had to guess, i would say worst case that 5,000 dollars buys what 1 dollar buys today. It may or may not, but its DEFINATELY going to 30-50 dollars for what 1 dollar buys today and will PROBABLY go to around 300-500 depending on other factors and how fast we get our asses in gear. Where do i get that number from you ask? Well, thats about what 3rd world countries that actually produce stuff trade at to our dollar. Indian rupees, thai baht, philippine peso, ect. Its very likely that we would trade equal with them to where it brings all the jobs back to america and we start producing again on par with the rest of the world.

    I know, i know...I'm a doom & gloomer. I dont want to be, but this is how i see it. I honestly hope i am dead wrong about this, but its pretty obvious just looking at the extreme movements lately in the US dollar that im right.
  2. I sure hope so. Then I can pay off my house rather easily.
  3. if the dollar collapses, everything else collapses as well. There is no safe currency. Your thread should mention total metldown and not be centered around the USD only.

    What is or are the safe currencies?
    What will be the standard?

    Oil dollars? Amero? Credits?


    "On a contract-by-contract basis, trade is by barter, but on a larger scale there is a currency. It's not a hard currency, it's just counters in the capitalist game. The interstellar currency is in credits: a credit is approximately a million dollars. In human space, currency is still neobucks, francs, yen, novalire, etc. Travel times between systems are short enough that it's possible to make a killing in currency exchange; it's also possible to lose everything."
  5. luken


    Agree everyone's reserves are in dollars if dolar colapses so will their currency. If that scenario were to arise, other virtues of each specific country/currency would come into play to determine value of that currency against the dolar, like military might, stability, crime rate, etc. But OP does address a point.
  6. Huh? Look back at a chart of the USD during the 80s/90s. Some of the moves were as violent. Also, this is not the fx market of the 1930s. Was the rise in the DM back then caused by deleveraging hedge funds buying back their carry funding currencies? Think this through a bit more...
  7. Nothing else would collapse. The dollar collapsing is a result of too much money supply. If lets we live on an island and we all trade coconuts, fish, and boar. Then one day one we find an unusual amount of coconuts in a grove. The fish and boar supply didnt increase...only the coconuts. Now instead of us trading 1 coconut for 1 fish, we will have to trade 10 or 20 coconuts for 1 fish. (obviously this scenario means that the USD is the coconut)

    Euro supply doesnt increase...yen doesnt increase. In fact it could be quite the opposite. People start selling dollars and holding Euros or yen and their money supply decreases. Then what happens? Europeans & japanese starting buying all that cheap chinese stuff and pick up the slack from where we left off.

    Its naive to think the rest of the world will come to a halt just because we do.
  8. SteveD


    If the US goes into a deep recession, most, if not all, of the world will be set back some 10 years.....

    It is naive to think otherwise.....

  9. Euro supply doesnt increase...???
    Um, you might want to look at some charts. Euro supply increased as much as USD supply from '98 to now. You need a clue (badly).

  10. Oh, and here is the Indian money supply (i.e. next super power). Sorry, but I can't upload a Chinese version... commies won't publish it.

    #10     Nov 18, 2008