I use Man. I figure they must have another broker execute the trade as I pay a 3.00 "brokerage" fee, so it must be someone else on the NYBOT floor. I usually input limit orders on spreads. Bull call or bull put spreads are usually filled close to settlement prices. Complex spreads don't usually get done. Very reticent to use market orders. Took quite a beating with my OJ spreads. Stopped out of my 160/180 Jan 08 spread at 500 pts (entry 900) , and my 190/210/230 butterly is almost worthless. Am I tempted to jump back in ? Sure. The other day I was hearing comments from the CFO of Munic Re and he was saying how he expected 25bln in damages from this hurricane season. But then again, what if we have a tame season? At this point I think the only way to participate in this market is via spreads. Maybe a ratio spread might work but risk/reward to me isn't that attractive on those.
This market needs a hurricane bad, or we'll see 1.00 soon...betting on hurricanes makes no sense here... implied option vols are already sky high...
cedric nice bottom fishing in juice. at this point i don't have any clear technical picture of the market. fundamentally it seems we are still in for some key data that might point to a much larger (i.e. 170mm box) crop for the 07/08 season. would also seem to me that hurricane activity starts later in the season, i.e. late august. so could still be some room to the downside. I could throw a bunch of tech crap here: I.e. if we run a retracement from Mid 2003 to the top of the rally in Dec 06 the 50% retracement mark would be 131. Whether that is a relevant level; I'm not sure. The next retracement levels would be 113 and 91 . Using a Demark countdown on a daily setup I don't find anything conclusive. I seldom do in markets that trend sharply and find that Demark countdowns do poorly with that type of market action. My chart shows reaching a 7 count on the low bar we reached on 6/26. So by no means a perfect setup. Looks like natgas brokedown today some more as well. Would lead me to believe all the hurricane theme seasonal longs bailed, or at least some long liquidation on a more tame season developing. I keep on hearing that late August is when it really should manifest itself. I haven't bee able to see any updated forecasts from NOAA either on their expectations of storm activity. With option implied volatility inflated I'm thinking the only way to approach this market with a long bias is by selling puts; but not sure I have any sort of edge calling a bottom here. Will we see 1.00 ?
Well Thanks Criveratrading, That was my first trade on OJ. Beginners luck LOL My analysis was removed above because I posted a link to my personal website. EliteTrader wrote me to tell me it is forbidden. I didn't know and apologize for that. I would gladly post new links to my analysis but now, I don't know if I can post the link to the chart pic only (the link to the .gif would still show my website address...). Here is my analysis previously posted on june 19 : "Orange Juice is on a south downtrend and quotes seem to lead the OJ Future directly back to Florida. Watch the $140 and $146 levels for any reversal. The bear target for now might well be the $120 level... As a matter of fact, OJ has broken down the descending triangle shown on chart 2 and considering the chartist theory, the obvious down objective is $120 (Height of the triangle $172 - $146 = 26 and $146 - $26 = $120). No hope is to be expected from current technical indicators as we can see on both charts. Our strategy will be double : 1. Wait until the chart reaches its $120 objective. We shall start buying on the $120 in order to catch a rebound on that support level dating from early january '06. 2. Reinforce when OJ breaks out $140 and $146 levels in order to aim to the may gap between $160.25 and $161.75. Buy level : $120 and / or > $140 Target level : $160 Stop loss level : < $118" PS : I am still on position. my average entry level is 130 so I'm still waiting for some profit PS bis : I am also long on NG and Corn. I would not be surprised that hurricane season comes later on this summer. I live in France and we currently have some early spring weather instead of sweet summer ... :-(
Purchased a Jan 08 130/155 call spread for 7.65 pts. Settled at 7.10. Let's see. Read an interesting analysis that was talking about the strength in the Brazilian Real and how that would hurt Brazilian exports. Also read that Brazilian growers were being paid less than their production costs and where switching a huge amount of acres to sugarcane. Some productive trees are even being cut and replaced with sugar cane.