The recent break looks to me like a buying opportunity. The crop is small, la Nina will be present, Hurricane Activity should be active in June-December season. I purchased a 180/210 jan 08 call spread for 6.5 points. Lousy locals settled the spread at 4.5 but oh well. I bid 5 and was getting no fill. Anyone else speculating in Juice?
Been short since the open on 4/2/07 and still short. What makes you think it looks like a buying opportunity?
just positioning for an active 07 hurricane season. i can't see why there would be a change of trend with the fundamental backdrop we have. with an active storm season 2.00 juice could be in the works i think
Looks about 60/40 to the longside, longterm. Maybe 70/30. Interesting thoughts. http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix= Probably, looks like a buy opp, for the same reason it looks like a TP opp for shorts. Its a weak pattern, though.
Doesn't seem to want to go up at the moment, but like energy I anticipate that a hurricane headline will be enough for a nice rally in the juice. We were up well over 2.00 back in Feb, so I don't think $2+ is out of the question by any means. I don't know much about the juice market though, aside from the fact that is is not very liquid...
Since my last post I took advantage of the rally to take some exposure off the trade and ended up selling my 180 call close to breakeven and rolled up and purchased a 190 call. That left me with a 190/210 call spread that I then further opted to turn into a low cost butterfly and sold the 210/230 spread effectively leaving me with the 190/210/230 fly for a debit of 300 pts. I then got enthused with the rally and ended up buying a 160/180 call spread for 900 pts. Both trades are losers at the moment. I felt uncomfy just having the butterfly in case juice "overshot" to the upside so bought the lower call spread. Guess Rain & an ample Brazilian crop weighed this week. The market is so thin and can be moved aggressively, I think, if someone wants to push it one way or the other. This week, the spec sellers won.
who are you trading these with criver, and what are the fills and confirmations like? if you don't mind me asking...
Evidently he does mind. You still have to do juice options on the NYBOT floor at this point (not a big softs guy, but I'm told OJ futes should be done in the pit at this point as well, as it's easy to get taken trading the very thin electronic market). If you need a good broker (or two--nice to have options) PM me and I'll send you some names of guys on the floor that will take care of you.