I use MF/MAN too. How you like em? I certainly like them more than IB, though MTRADE is archaic. My brokers are fair and decent chaps. I pay 5.5 electronic and 12 for pit (r/t) plus all their assorted fees. Wonder what their "brokerage" fees are... 3rd party floor guys?
As long as we are talking about various commodity markets specifically the softs markets. I am short july 10.50 sugar straddles at .72 These have really been a roller coaster lately with experation so close but my profit range is around 11.20-9.70 so I feel good about that trade. Also looking at selling july 145 coffee calls for about .90 if we can trade just a little higher monday a guy might be able to sell em for .90 I like that trade a lot. Maybe even making it a strangle and selling 130 put too. Or just selling 135 straddles which gives us about 8.00 premium to collect with roughly the same breakevens. Any thoughts guys?
Here are the COT positioning graphs for select commodities as of 6/3/08's close for large speculators. Cocoa
YT, i don't like selling puts in Coffee, I think Coffee boots and takes out 130. I also studied your Dec straddles in the corn, but with the vol don't feel adequately rewarded by the premium. Your breakeven zones look interesting though, I must say, but am not particularly an option seller myself. You might catch me selling bull put spreads or bear call spreads, but that's about it. Take a look at the Sep 2800/2900 Calls. Could have been bot today for 50 pts. Worth 100 on expiration. Mkt telling you it's a coinflip we trade above 2900 by expiration... methinks better probability that happens. Specs aren't long that much as you can see from COT graph... so enough powder to power market higher. But I'm just talking my own book
You think coffee is going to break below 130 within the next week of trading? It could happen but probably not imo. I guess thats why there is a market right lol! Yeah my breakevens on the corn is like 750-480 which given the fundamentals and technical picture it seems like a pretty damn safe range for corn to trade in. It pays about 7,000 if we expire in that range for dec corn so not too bad imo. What are your thoughts on my short 10.50 july sugar straddle? Expires next week I believe. I sold it for .72 I will deffinantly be checking out the cocoa spread. One thing I am thinking about doing on Monday if we recieve less than expected rain fall here in the midwest is shorting july $15 bean straddles for roughly a buck worth of premium. This puts a range at 16-14 within the next 14 days. Beans could reach 16 but it would be a stretch and just from today's price action it seems like we might of put in an intermediate top in the bean market. However it seems like 1400 should support beans. Its just something to think about. 5,000 in 14 days is some prettyd damn good money though man. Have a great weekend guys!
hey YT could you cap loss on that bean straddle buy buying a 16.00 call and buying a 14.00 put woulde that m ake the trade risk free?
No I think while you would be offsetting the loss above 16 and below 14 you would still be paying the premium to buy that 16 call and 14 put so it would still cost something......but im far from an options expert.