KCU8 has shown strong support at the 140 level, and industry buyers seem to be buying the dips below 141, a technical rally to 150-155 is very possible...However, keep an eye on the rising bag reports....the 14 July certified stocks report showed an increase of 22,849 bags over the 7 July report. Some selling pressure might come into play.
I see sugar and oj chopping with vol declining soon. Both markets don't really have much going for them and look like they have found a range to trade in. Im still long my 12/14 1x2 in oct sugar options Want to put on a ratio call spread in sep oj as well but am debating on if that little options pit would screw me on the order or not.......just going to have to call down today. Im short some sep 175 calls in coffee. With the extreme bearishness in this market there is no way we break new highs before sep option expiration. I do agree however that maybe taking coffee to 150 is possible but like I said the fundamentals are so poor that I see us eventually breaking 130 You guys looking at lumber? Nov looks like it could take a major fall! Option market is way too thin to do anything.......have to short futures
im short sugar calls, sugar held 140-141 well. My hats off to the buyers for sticking that level. IT might be ready for anothjer leg up, but I agree with my good friend YT. 175 is probably a little far out of reach, there is so much coffee in Brasil. OJ I am flat wish I was loing from 110 haha. Im trading some eurodollar spreads as we speak, and looking at the YM. Copper is always a good one, got a few put on today and my oil spread just waiting to get out, oct isn't very liquid yet though. (or as liquid as sep I should say)
Brazil is harvesting the largest coffee crop on record? Not so sure on the coffee. I like the potential for OJ with the hurricane season expected to be above average and all.
Lets see - Im long both coffee and OJ. Yeh Brazil may harvest tons but the price of coffee is near its 20 year historical lows. It may move down but not much pontential on the downside. Enjoy