I sense you might be overtrading RTRAD, you've said it yourself that it is something you need to watch. So, long Sep Crude, short October at around September 20 cents under October right? Is this based on your idea we'll see backwardation and the curve invert on short term supply worries? Looks interesting. Still see no interesting trades... I'm dead tired this week. Time to get a Starbucks and feed the coffee bull.
Exports of arabica beans fell 15 percent this month through yesterday compared with the first 25 days in May, Brazil's Coffee Exporters Council said. A growers' group said yesterday that no more than 8 percent of the country's crop was harvested through June 24, down from as much as 18 percent a year earlier. Could they be extending financing to growers to allow more beans to be warehoused and kept off the market?
off topic: how much of a bond rally can we expect with global equities melting down? will we see massive flight to quality or will inflation concerns keep a lid on the rally. i was looking at Japanese JGB's and OTM calls
criv ya man i am overtrading, i have taken a good hit since friday (5 k) and just feel stresses. I have 14 aug/oct cattle on and I am down about 8 or 9 k in those. corn has really been messing with those. i was up and never got out and now i have a big loser. i\i am conflicted on what to do oh well. coffee is weird. techincal buying, buy stops, fund money and late harvest are pushing the market. I wanna catch the short when it goes, but picking a top in this beast is ridiculous. anyways im gonna head to bed early had a long day. good trading all
drank a little and partied a little which woke me up. anyhow. sep/oct crude im just looking at a chart, i think we will see sep get at least .20 or more over oct. not looking to make a mint just a little. i think that spread bottomed. i got out of my copper spread a little early but friday is notice and i wanted to be out way b4 then. i will look at your trades you talked about above me
holy shit what a day! i dont feel well and slept in all day i missed some great action!! my oil spread is working out better now, expect that to continue hopefully. oj was outrageous today!
Yeah, I noticed orange juice today. Any ideas what caused this movement? Was there any news that caused this? thanks
Probably too hot to buy, maybe sell some put spreads. Frozen concentrated orange juice futures rallied to seven-week highs Monday on speculative buying linked to strong technicals, the tripping of buy stops and on fundamental worries that California orange production may be encountering its most serious threat ever, brokers and analysts said. September orange juice rose 895 points to settle at $1.2260 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, a 7.9% gain on the day. Nearby July, which holds little open interest, gained 890 points to reach $1.1835 for an 8.1% gain. "We were poised to move higher, and I think we just hit stops," said James Cordier, analyst and founder of Optionsellers.com in Tampa. Cordier said he had anticipated a price breakout but believed the move would take several days instead of a few hours. News that the Asian citrus psyllid, which carries the fatal citrus greening disease, has been found in Tijuana and just two miles from San Diego County, also sparked buying interest. While greening, which kills citrus trees in about two years from infection, has not yet been found, the presence of the psyllid insect makes agriculture officials nervous. "I've been in the citrus business all my life ... and this is the greatest threat we've ever seen to the California industry," Ted Batkin, president and chief executive of the California Citrus Research Board in Visalia, told the Central Valley Business Times. If the psyllid becomes established in the state, 20%-25% of total citrus acreage could be lost, he said. However, given the production losses in Florida to the disease and the fact that state has been battling greening since September 2005, Joel Nelsen, president of California Citrus Mutual in Exeter, said the losses could potentially go much higher. While California is mostly a market for fresh oranges and Florida's oranges are grown mostly for juice, the finding of the psyllid nevertheless suggests the potential for decreased orange supplies in the U.S. - a bullish development, a broker says. "It makes headlines when they talk about production loss in California, and (with no regard to their specific markets) people just think that California and Florida produce all the oranges and that's the general perception," said Cordier. In addition to the news, extra volatility was also created when traders exited nearby positions ahead of July's first notice on Tuesday. In other news, large funds increased short positions by 375 contracts in the week to June 24, taking them 581 contracts net short, or 1.3% of open interest. That's compared to just 35 lots net short the previous week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. FCOJ open interest Friday fell 858 contracts to total 30,020, ICE reported. Traders liquidated 1,399 July positions but added 515 to September. Just 1,399 positions remained open in nearby July. Futures volume was estimated at 5,854 lots, with 604 calls and 991 put options traded.
Corn Acreage Planted: 87.327 mil vs. 86.014 previous (+1.313) Harvested: 78.940 mil vs. 78.8 previous (+.14) Stocks: 4.028 vs. 3.894 avg trade guess (+.134) Soybeans Acreage Planted: 74.533 vs. 75.257 previous (-.724) Harvested: 72.121 vs. 73.8 previous (-1.679) Stocks: 676 vs. 663 avg trade guess (+13) Wheat Acreage Planted: 63.457 vs. 63.808 previous (-.351) Harvested: 56.586 vs. 56.3 previous (+.286) Stocks: 305 vs. 275 avg trade guess (+30) Corn looks quite capped. I would expect your cattle spread to workout RTRAD. What's your breakeven on them? What do you think of selling some Sep 105 OJ puts at 115 pts or better?