OJ/ Coffee Random Musings

Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by criveratrading, May 28, 2008.

  1. Bought a OJ Jan 09 160 call for 470pts.

    Global weather has been weird so why not. Last year I bought some call spreads, turned them into condors and watched them all expire worthless as Juice tanked. Anyone speculating in juice? I'll also try to buy some "lotto" call spreads in the higher strikes for peanuts. Probably spend more in comm than on the spread itself.

    Open interest on this strike looks pretty big too at over 4,000 contracts


    Also, i'm turning quite bearish the Brazilian Real; C/A deficit widest in 6 yrs and think they are losing competitiveness quickly.
    If BRL depreciates I would think that would be a big overhang in coffee. Thinking of buying some far OTM puts , like Dec 2010 52.5's for 10c or something...
     
  2. i was gonna short oj but after further examination there is alot of risk to the upside with the weather just like you said. Im short coffee todays rally is weird. I added length today and will really load up at 140 if it gets that high
     
  3. coffee selling off a bit here, i really feel like we could see 130.00 or so within a couple weeks. we will see what the weather is like in Brasil this weekend though
     
  4. shorts working well. target is still 130-131
     
  5. i went ahead and shorted oj twice well see what happens. 105.00 on both. im either gonna love or hate this trade
     
  6. Tried to buy some lotto option spreads today in the juice but was told it wasn't going to happen. Was trying to buy 205/210 JAN 09 call spreads for a meager 5 pts but was told by my broker no one would sell that spread. Option px's settled there but guess that isn't relevant.

    I want to put on a cheap put spread on in Coffee far far OTM and out in time.

    OJ seemed to want to hold the 105 level
     
  7. ya it sure did. im out pretty quick if i dont get a pop down. im only looking to pick up a couple hundo on this one
     
  8. rallied pretty good after trying to find activity and wash out longs.

    I wonder what option IV's will do if we rally... IV feels expensive.


    rtrader, did u cover?
     
  9. lol no! I was nervously watching weather and noithing happened thank god. I have a feeling monday will be down for both. what are you thinking? I am never ever gonna go into a weekend in hurricane season without ever covering or at least buying an outside month to spread it over the weekend. thank god i made it through! what are you thinking this week
     
  10. they are both popping today, coffee spiked but left a nice little gap down there around 136.20 somewhere. I'm looking ti get short more right now at 140.00 Fundamentally we should see 130.00 soon but I've been wrong before I could be wrong again! OJ up as well that suprises me with the great weather florida had. hmmmmmm well see what happens
     
    #10     Jun 2, 2008