CRUDE-OIL INVENTORIES CLIMB, SURPRISING ANALYSTS 10:36am 12/21/05 Crude up 1.3M barrels, distillates down 2.8M in latest week By Ciara Linnane NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil inventories climbed by 1.3 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 16, placing them well above their average range for this time of year, the Department of Energy said Wednesday. Supplies of motor gasoline fell 300,000 barrels, while distillate supplies, which include heating oil, fell by 2.8 million barrels, placing them in the lower half of their average range for this time of year. Analysts were expecting crude supplies to fall by 1 to 3 million barrels, and were forecasting a more modest drop in distillate supplies. Crude for February delivery was last trading up 46 cents at $58.55 a barrel, about 20 cents higher than their level before the data were announced.
It's interesting that high oil prices were constantly grabbing headlines, yet we hear very little when oil prices drop.
my models still see oil staying below 75 - out for the next year at least - and this has not changed since the summer. The only thing that would change this prediction would be a major international crisis of some sort .... my models show that it would be very difficult to push beyond 75 for even a short time (primarily due to the conservation effect).