Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Comptalk, Jun 7, 2007.
Can someone explain to me how if Oil goes up the Oil stocks go down? VLO, XOM, CVN, all down.
Some oil stock holders obviously believe there's risk of an economic slowdown. Enough to pinch profits of oil companies even if oil remains at this level.
People still need to drive. People will still use air conditioning.
Really doesn't add up.
Overlay a chart of the OSX with a chart of crude oil. The two do not move in tandem.
If oil remains at it's current price but oil co. expenses rise 5-10% does it not result in lower profits thus lower stock price?
The good news is this is not a bubble
the prices of all the oil companies are additionally elevated by the inprecise arb between earnings yield (1/PE) against long bond/treasury yield.
as money/leverage becomes more expensive, the multiple comes down.
additionally, the refiner margin is coming down a little bit lately. xom and other refiners have been buoyed by gasoline margins, more than offsetting lower cost of oil y/y.
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