Oil towards 65 or 35

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by toc, May 15, 2005.

  1. toc


    Seems there was a big cry about how oil is going to kill the global economies and cause depression of sorts........this when it was around $55 a barrel. Now it has eased off a litte to $48 and all the cry has calmed down. Guess how emotional the masses are be it in the trading pit or computer or buyers on the gas pump.

    Any inputs on where oil is heading from here. The chart enclosed, would it qualify for a flag which can break upwards are reach $65 or for a triangle ready to correct to high 30s.
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  2. John47


    consider this:

    this chart shows the UT or 'demand line' that started to assert itself in September 2003. Several tests of the line since have confirmed its strength.

    Several rallies off of this line have corrected back to it...in the past year getting more volitile.

    Since the top at around $58...Crude has been in a downward channel...important resistance seems to come in about $53.50, support around $50. Now a break of the $50 support has been confirmed....next bigtime support will probably be at this line, around the $46 neighborhood.

    Not a prediction, but one possible outcome: QM falls to this uptrend line...the UT and $50 resistance form an ascending triangle....a break from which becomes the rally to $60 + dollars some have forecasted.

    Whatever happens, keep an eye on that UT, whether it holds or breaks will be notable.
  3. John47


    probably a good idea to include the chart I'm babbling about....
  4. toc


    Good Stuff John!, the recent move to $59 odd was the head and shoulder breakout to the top, and now the correction to $48 is the target of the double top. The question is where from here, which can be explained by the downward wedge which should break out upside also.

    Has anyone heard of the deep bore technology invented by the Russians. In this deal, they say deep inside the earth the oil is constantly made and burned just the way crops grow and are consumed. This way, there is infinite supply of oil just like wheat or rice only thing is it has to be extracted from the deep deep boring from the near core. According to this theory, the current oil that we see inthe higher levels is the leakage from this deep reserve moving upwards. If so, then atleast one major threat to global depression is cancelled out. Any views.
  5. toc


    Ok Folks, here is the deep bore link and a small paragraph pasted below. Cheers!


    It appears that, unbeknownst to Westerners, there have actually been, for quite some time now, two competing theories concerning the origins of petroleum. One theory claims that oil is an organic 'fossil fuel' deposited in finite quantities near the planet's surface. The other theory claims that oil is continuously generated by natural processes in the Earth's magma. One theory is backed by a massive body of research representing fifty years of intense scientific inquiry. The other theory is an unproven relic of the eighteenth century. One theory anticipates deep oil reserves, refillable oil fields, migratory oil systems, deep sources of generation, and the spontaneous venting of gas and oil. The other theory has a difficult time explaining any such documented phenomena.
  6. colion


    I think the argument for abiotic oil is starting to get traction in the western world. The inability to account for sufficient organic feedstock by a variety of calculations, the presence of helium in oil, etc. are proving to be of concern for organic origin supporters. However, even if oil is abiotic, or even partially abiotic (the rest being organic), one aspect of the problem has not been addressed, at least in what I have read. How fast is abiotic oil being generated and how fast does it percolate to the "surface." If these two factors do not occur at a sufficiently fast rate then at some point extraction rates will result in "peak oil" and eventually depletion. The kinetics of generation of abiotic oil and its delivery is to the best of my knowledge a big unknown in terms of both theory and observation.
  7. personally, i wouldnt long oil until it breaks a new high. oil stocks dont seem to have the same strength that they had 1 year ago. plus, it isnt like the US economy is getting any better and the Bush administration would not be too happy if oil shot up over $60 a barrel.
  8. 65 hits before 35 imo.
  9. toc


    That's what I hope too as this chart shows a better flag in making and also indicators show the oversold territory. There is a Head and Shoulders in MACD but the support to overcome for the downside breakout is heavy and do not think this support at the neckline would be broken.

    By the way, some analyst from Goldman Sachs predicted $105 for oil, but the rumor is Goldman has heavy long positions in Oil and they need prices to go higher so that they can liquidate. That's what these Ivy League analysts are good about.....misinformation and market manipulation.
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  10. Excellent chart.
    #10     May 18, 2005