Oil will hit well over $100 and stay high: Rogers Thu Jul 6, 2006 6:34 AM ET By Barbara Lewis LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices will soar to well over $100 a barrel and stay high as part of a sustained commodities bull run that has another 15 years to run, billionaire U.S. investor Jim Rogers told Reuters in an interview. One factor that could bring down the price would be a bird flu epidemic, which would send all asset classes plummeting, he said, although oil would probably fall less than other markets. "We're going to have high oil prices for a very long time. The surprise is going to be how high it goes," Rogers said. Reiterating earlier comment oil prices would hit at least $100 a barrel, he said: "It will be much more than $100 before the bull market is over." U.S. light sweet crude <CLc1> hit a new record of $75.40 a barrel on Wednesday and was trading at close to $75 on Thursday. Rogers, a former investment partner of billionaire fund manager George Soros, has predicted the commodities bull run has at least 15 years to run. "It's a major long-term bull market as far as I'm concerned," he said. Aside from the bullish impact of tensions, described by Rogers as temporary, over Iran's nuclear ambitions and North Korea's missile tests, he said oil was drawing long-term support from the lack of large scale finds. He did not know whether the Peak Oil theory that oil supplies are either at or very near their peak was correct. But said: "If there is oil out there, you had better find it soon." BIRD FLU COULD SEND PRICES LOWER Apart from new supplies, a factor that could lower prices would be a widespread epidemic of bird flu spread between humans. "If bird flu should break out, everything will go down and oil would go down to $40, but I would still urge people to buy oil. It would go down less than other things and it would be the first to go back up," said Rogers. Rogers has set up the Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI) <.RICIX> for gaining access to the commodity markets. In the first half of this year it outperformed its much bigger rivals the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) <.GTX> and the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index (DJ-AIGCI) <.DJAIGTR>. While the RICI gained 9.7 percent in the first six months of this year, according to Reuters data, the GSCI rose 5.3 percent and the DJ-AIG gained 3.6 percent. Rogers said he could not say exactly how much money was in the RICI, but it was at least $4 billion. The commodity indexes, which analysts have estimated bring together a total of well over $80 billion, each comprise different combinations of commodities. The GSCI and DJ-AIGIC adjust the weightings of various components depending on market performance, while the Rogers index maintains steady weightings, Rogers said. "You need the same weightings every month," he argued. Among those using the indexes are the mutual funds, which invest in groups of assets on behalf of individuals and institutions. As an indication of how much room the commodities market, long regarded as a very risky, alternative investment, has to grow, Rogers said there were around 70,000 mutual funds for investing in stocks and bonds and less than 10 to invest in commodities. "People have started to invest in commodities. It's a bull market and bull markets pick people up as they go higher and higher," he said.
Actually crude oil is going to $386.57 per barrel: http://dhatz.blogspot.com/2006/06/oil-to-38657-per-barrel.html
classic bull market price action here today after the inventory numbers. Crude sold off to 74.30 and bounced back ( so far ) to 75.10. BUY DIPS like i said before. This is the next leg up. Get in while you still can..........
This thing just keeps rallying after any kind of sell off, very bullish if you ask me. It got thru the all time highs overnight on a refinery fire, sold off to 74.80, then has rallied back to 75.50 thus far today. We should test the highs again.
wow, looks like T boone was selling into strength...... crude ends on the lows....didnt see that coming, obvously.
You can't expect oil to make a new high on its first attempt... The latest push up had run out of strength by Friday so, although out of character for oil to weaken going into the w/end, it was good to have some profit taking. This sets us up for a renewed push to a new record high this coming week.
bloomberg excerpt below ... now ... do we fade this as traders or buy the dips ? -Oil prices will probably rise next week because of political disputes and expectations surging demand will reduce gasoline supplies, according to analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News. - -Twenty-six of 38 analysts, or 68 percent, in the weekly survey predicted prices would increase. It was the most bullish response in a year. - Last Updated: July 7, 2006 15:20 EDT
Oil @ 80 would be a nice first leg into a short position. Be prepared to feel the heat if "Nature" takes a wack at the Gulf or if IRAN decides to tell the US to Piss off in AUGUST over the NUKE issue. You'll have to have an exit plan or a point at which you will hedge the short position if it moves against you due to the situations above. However, I think by summers end OIL is going to take a dive for the short term I belive it will slowly sell off. However not sure at what level the buying would come in strong. 70ish maby.