puts are more attractive because you don't get stopped out as oil climbs to 100 as it seems destined to test. the currency and oil/gold markets are testing bernanke as we speak. And simultaneously, people are taking some bets off the fed fund futures for strong rate cuts. you never know, they may hold, and this may be the perfect entry (maybe weds though) for long USD, short oil, gold. one thing is certain: the fundamentals have not changed 20% worth in the last few weeks [as the price has] for oil. this balloon will pop just as quickly, if not more quickly than it inflated.
You got 'er buddy, when it comes undone it will come undone with a vengeance. All the fund managers and small speculators seem to want to give this a push in concert, but when there is finally a trigger that causes a hefty pullback, we could see all of the speculative length rushing for the exits at once and see CL go limit down. Hard to imagine at this stage in the game, but the tide will indeed turn at some point and then people will be talking about how it was destined to come down and markets don't stay so artificially high forever, blah, blah, blah. It's been a fun ride, and I'm not convinced we're finished yet, but the end is near if you ask me.
I have 9370 time and price are squared. Any sign of a rollover I'll be starting to trade the sell side. Every square wont hold, but this one has a good shot.
$100 is inevitable, sooner rather than later. Or pretty darn close to $100 ($99.95?). Either way, it is a target, a self-fulfilling prophecy. If it gets there, the high of the move will probably be the top, at least for a while. One of those one-time-print kind of deals, followed by a bear reversal and massive selling.
You guys are right crude is over priced, that are making plenty of this stuff. The world is getting smaller not larger geesh. Bernake said high oil has not caused a recession, so lets see how high it will go before we get a recession.
when time and price "square" in this type of market environment its a beautiful thing. 9370 was a perfect square. Oil market will not likely see those levels again through 2008.
We hit 94 and we were on our way to 95, but prices collapsed thanks to GS. Oh well, we're not going to make it to $100. We'll just have to wait till GS wants the price to rise again.
Prices did not collapse because of Goldman. Prices collapsed because we were due for a pullback, but the long term trend is still intact. In the meantime, let bears come out of the zoo, and rape those MUTHA FOOS!