Oil: The illusion of plenty

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by oil_trader, Aug 13, 2005.

  1. Peak Oil is real....
    according to frontier resources, such as extra-heavy oil, "oil sands," and "oil shale." The report cites the existence of more than 4 trillion barrels of extra heavy oil and "oil sands"--producing potentially 800 billion barrels of oil, assuming a 20-25 percent extraction efficiency. The Outlook also cites an estimate of 3 trillion barrels of "oil shale." These numbers have figured prominently in advertisements that ExxonMobil and other petroleum companies have placed in newspapers and magazines, clearly in an attempt to reassure consumers (and perhaps stockholders) that there is no need to worry about resource constraints for many decades.

    However, as with all advertisements, it's best to read the fine print. ExxonMobil's world oil production forecast shows no contribution from "oil shale" even by 2030. Only about 4 million barrels of oil per day from Canadian "oil sands" are projected by 2030, accounting for a mere 3.3 percent of the predicted total world demand of 120 million barrels per day. What explains this striking disconnection between the magnitude of the frontier resources and the minimal amount of projected oil production from them? Canadian "oil sands" are actually deposits of bitumen (tar), which are the result of conventional oil degradation by water and air. Tar sands are of a completely different character than conventional oil deposits; making tar sands usable is a capital-intensive venture that requires special procedures such as heating to separate the tar from the sand, mixing the tar with a diluting agent for pipeline transport, and constructing specially equipped refineries for processing.

    read this and ponder...
  2. Thx for the link. Good info

    The human race will adapt..always has always will. Peak oil will not turn us into roaming nomads ala "Mad Max" as the doomsday theorist will have us believe. Maybe i`m the eternal optimist but I think that this eventual forced change will bring forth a new era. Most likely in the form of radical new technology that will make the internet/computer breakthroughs look like two sticks rubbed together.
    People need to take their own energy needs into consideration and not worry about others or the Governments solutions. For instance in my household. We are closing on a home that we are selling. After we put the 20% down on a new home the leftovers will be used to install a Solar unit (PV) that will heat our home, power the electric and inground pool. And sell any energy not used back to our local utility. The meter will spin backwards..... NY has a 5000 tax break for installing these units. And the fed has another 2000 I believe.
    I cant wait to see what the future brings! And if we do turn into roaming nomads at least there will be no taxes. :D
  3. TO4


    I have read a few of these doomday scenarios.

    But somehow I know the government knows something about it along with the major oil companies. I mean how can ExxonMobil and others know when they will be out of business without doing something about it?

    I agree life will go on - already we have cars running on oil from mcdonalds friers. May not be the total solution but its a start.

    Who knows maybe we will be driving garbage fed deloreans ala back to the future:D
  4. We better start building a better transportation infrastructure and fast.
    Europe uses half of what we but they have some alternative like trains, buses we have the old horse and buggy and nothing else....
  5. mhashe


    Yeah, it's called hydrogen energy. refit current gas stations and future autos with hydrogen tanks. God forbid we should develop more efficient solar cell technology. Then who would need the large utlilities and oil corporations?
  6. I agree 100%. More public trans. But you have to make it convenient, cheap and clean. Like the trams in Amsterdam..what a pleasure to use. If NYC modelled a future public transportation system on something like that they could practically ban passenger cars and get away with it. NYC`s subways are disgusting, but you bring them above ground you have a desirable alternative to cars.
  7. PLus we need convenient coffee shops
    along the way the stops of trams alas Amsterdam. :)
    Seriously Amsterdam is my favorite city I worked in Lux for several months and I spent all week-ends there when I could.
    I had a car but I could not use it in the city so I always parked and walked or used the trams.
  8. YES..but thats another argument for progressive moves in the USA! :)

    The Dam is my fav city in the world. Spent roughly 2 months there in vacation time over the years and never used a car once. Bike, walk and tram. Even when you want to get out of town and go to The Hague or Rotterdam you just jump on the tram to central station and then continue by train...gotta love it.