http://business.financialpost.com/2...since-the-1970s-deutsche-bank/?__lsa=e937492e ---- Oil supply threats highest since the 1970s: Deutsche Bank Yadullah Hussain Feb 16, 2012 â 11:47 AM ET | Last Updated: Feb 16, 2012 12:48 PM ET The world has not seen the threat of oil disruption of this magnitude since the 1970s, when an Arab oil embargo, the Arab-Israeli war and the Iranian revolution interrupted crude supplies, says Deutsche Bank. âThe world faces oil supply risks from a multitude of sources, not only in the Middle East but also in Africa. In our view, not since the late 1970s/early 1980s has there been such a serious threat to oil supply,â wrote Soozhana Choi, Deutsche Bankâs head of Asia commodities research, in a note to clients. The Strait of Hormuz is the worldâs most critical chokepoint through which 35% of the worldâs seaborne traded oil passes through, but Ms. Choi believes the potential Iranian disruption of shipping in the Strait as âa low probabilityâ event, especially as it will hurt Tehran more. While oil markets are climbing a wall of worries on Israel-Iran tensions, they are also concerned about a whole host of other oil-exporting countries in the midst of political turmoil, such as Bahrain, Libya, Iraq, Nigeria and Yemen. âThese are the countries we believe carry the highest risk of fresh or persistent supply disruption. At present realized disruptions are approximately 1.2 million bpd, based on our assessment which at present excludes Iranian exports affected by EU sanctions,â said Ms. Choi. Add Sudan to the list of troubled oil exporters. Recently, Sudan and South Sudan, the worldâs newest country, were locked in a dispute over transit fees halting the latterâs entire oil production of about 360,000 barrels per day. Ms. Choi think the gloomy supply outlook will compel key oil importers such as China and India to increase their petroleum reserves. âJust as the events of the 1970s instigated the creation of the IEA and strategic reserves in the West, countries outside of the IEA membership in Asia, notably China and India that are already seeking to build their own strategic reserves are likely to see this period of heightened risk to global oil supplies as further impetus for stockpiling initiatives,â wrote Ms. Choi. Current events may also spur policy makers in China to prioritize development of oil reserves and even increase and accelerate the timeline for strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) targets. China is aggressively pursuing a plan to develop SPR reserves with a target cover of 100 days by the end of this decade. India, too, is building strategic reserves, though its target is far less ambitious than that of China, wrote Ms.Choi.