Oil is a finite commodity, but does that matter? (By the way, I took a course many years ago called "Energy, Resources and Policy" or something like that. It covered oil to orbiting solar satellites.) We were taught there would be a serious global oil crunch coming around 1990. The course was in 1977.) -Stephen ==================================== http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehrlich-Simon_bet Beginning in the 1960s, an environmental trend which was broadly anti-industrial began to be a major feature of western political thought. Throughout the 1970s it became fashionable to predict general doom for western civilisation for a number of reasons. Concerns about over-use of natural resources were often cited in support of this prognostication, such as the Peak Oil issue. By the end of the 1970s it was common to hear extreme predictions of industrial collapse in a few years due to shortages of raw materials, followed by the fall of western civilisation. Julian L. Simon and Paul Ehrlich entered in a famous wager in 1980, betting on a mutually agreed upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990. The wager Simon had Ehrlich choose five of several commodity metals. Ehrlich chose 5 metals: copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Simon bet that their prices would go down. Ehrlich bet they would go up. ... Paul Ehrlich mailed Julian Simon a check for $576.07 to settle the wager in Simon's favor. ======================================== More if you're still reading: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornucopian A cornucopian is someone who posits that there are few intractable natural limits to growth and believes the world can provide a practically limitless abundance of natural resources. In the Peak Oil debate, cornucopians posit that rising prices make oil deposits which were previously considered too expensive to extract and produce become profitable, and also spurs the development of alternative fuels. Peak Oil critics of the Cornucopian view stress that liquid petroleum is a finite resource, and production cannot be increased above a set amount no matter how much demand increases, because of Hubbert's Peak.
Yes. Next question? P.S.: Although your post was informative as showing both sides, it wasn't clear which side you are on....
Pekelo I'm a cornucopian. Copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten are also finite commodities. The black line is the average: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Simon-Ehrlich.png I found this very interesting as well: "[Simon] always found it somewhat peculiar that neither the Science piece nor his public wager with Ehrlich nor anything else that he did, said, or wrote seemed to make much of a dent on the world at large. For some reason he could never comprehend, people were inclined to believe the very worst about anything and everything; they were immune to contrary evidence just as if they'd been medically vaccinated against the force of fact. Furthermore, there seemed to be a bizarre reverse-Cassandra effect operating in the universe: whereas the mythical Cassandra spoke the awful truth and was not believed, these days "experts" spoke awful falsehoods, and they were believed. Repeatedly being wrong actually seemed to be an advantage, conferring some sort of puzzling magic glow upon the speaker." -Stephen
OK, since I am not an expert on those 2 simple questions: 1. How many years of supply left of them? If the answer is 100+, we can worry about them a bit later, I say... 2. Can they be substituted with something else easily? If yes, again, let's our grandchildren worry about the great tungsten wars... The problem with oil, that contrary to popular beliefs there is no real substitute for it and with current consumption level we have 40+ years supply left. That doesn't mean we don't have to start to adjust to its finite nature (peak oil) like yesterday... P.S. Inflation adjusted oilprice. True, it had been pretty much the same for 110 years until 1973, since then it fluctuates wildly but also moved to a higher platform... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_1861_2006.jpg
From a recent post of mine: ========================================== In the Peak Oil debate, cornucopians posit that rising prices make oil deposits which were previously considered too expensive to extract and produce become profitable, and also spurs the development of alternative fuels. ========================================== Don't worry, it will all work out. -Stephen
NOW I can sleep better. Unfortunatelly, people like you just repeat the mantra instead of crunching the numbers. Once you look into the numbers and facts you will see that: 1. Even formerly more expensive oilfields won't cover the rising NEED...Also it doesn't change its finite nature just gives more time. 2. Oil is unique in so many ways that so far there is no real alternative. But you said not to worry, so I won't.... P.S.: This is just in, study done by the big boys. They say, worry: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/18/business/18cnd-oil.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Pekelo ======================================== The new production, combined with a slowdown in consumption, has put off the day when the world will start running out of oil to the 1990s, or the early 21st century. (typical, 1991 to, what? 2025? S. Szpak) Time article dated Monday, Sep. 11, 1978 http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946053-1,00.html ========================================= July 25, 2002âIt is a matter of scientific fact that the world will begin running out of oil in less than five years...This conclusion is echoed in a series of reports in From the Wilderness by geologist and investigative journalist Dale Allen Pfeiffer. Based on the Hubbert Curve (a standard measure of oil production peaks and declines, nationally and globally), "within five years, we will no longer be able to produce enough oil to meet the needs of our oil civilization." http://www.yonip.com/main/articles/philippines.html (Man, just 2 days left! S.Szpak) ========================================= I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. -Stephen
I don't see the supply falling at all.. Definitely not 2010 unless something miraculous happens.. Under ordinary circumstances- no chance.