Oil Stocks CHK WLL - What Is Their Worth?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Filgga, Apr 18, 2006.

  1. Filgga


    (1) CHK stock price $16.74, NAV $32.5

    CHK is my favorite oil or natural gas stock. Here is updated Net Asset Value (NAV) table from CHK July 2004 earning release:

    Table CHK PV-10 per share NAV vs Natural gas price

    N Gas price NAV per share

    $4.50 $16.11

    $5.00 $19.60

    $5.50 $23.11

    $6.00 $26.61

    $6.50 $32.5

    PE = 10 or 10% of earning yield is considered reasonable valuation for non-growing business. PV-10 Net Asset Value (NAV) is standard calculation for value of oil or natural gas reserve assuming current production cost and expenses. When N gas price = $4.5, CHK will make $1.611 per share per year true profit with current production/exploration expenses. CHK is worth $16.11 at $4.5 gas price in this case. We can imagine that as if CHK is a bank deposit account, the interest rate is 10%, if we deposit $16.11 principle there, each year we get 10% interest returns or $1.611 interest per year.

    For the 1st half of 2004, natural gas price was between $5 and $7 averaging at $6.0. Natural gas price was as high as $9 in later half of 2004. CHK stock price is still below $17 recently and its reported quarterly net income severely under-estimated its true profitability.