I hope it is this years maserati, because that makes me feel so much better. Maseratis are garbage. they're good for about 10k miles and then they're worth about as much as a Kia. Thanks! put a smile on my face!
agreed, its now more obvious to more people, that what has been done (relatively) in the dark, is now in the light and front center in peoples minds.... they screwed the pooch so much, they broke it today, and the -413 DJIA was proof, action is going to be swift, severe and significant over the weekend, or the remaining world markets will plummet too because of the simple fact that the US (any remainind breathing sector, whether Congress, Govenors or other regulators that can take a loud public presense on the world markets) has not acted. Geo Bush II is out to lunch. The markets waited and paused all the way up to the 1:49pm EST hour awaiting his much heralded speech at 1:50pm, and all he did was announce some labor secretary appointment. The markets promptly took away another 80 points from the DJIA being down roughly -334 at that time, until the close at -440 and a settle of -413 range. he is out to lunch..... got any hand baskets cause we ain't goin there, weeze already there and going beyond it
We haven't had anything approaching a blowoff top as of recent. Here is some support for my point about blowoff tops being indeed shortable. For recent history: For data: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcd.htm - Gulf War I: Beginning Aug 1990, iraq invasion. $20 -> $29 in 5 trading days. Thats a 45% move. Dwarfs this one. Crude corrected about 15% to $25 before moving up to $40. Within 5 months (February), price was back to $20. - Hurricane Katrina: August 29th or so, 2005. Oil peaked that day around $70. That was the day to short. - Gulf War II: March 19th 2003 was the invasion date. Oil crashed down (classic sell the news) once the invasion was confirmed from $37 to $27 the following week! 27% drop in price. Price stabilized around $30 thereafter. Now for a look a little further back to the 1973 and 1979 oil crises: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg Both price spikes did not witness continued acceleration in price. In fact, the second spike witnessed a price collapse that soon followed. I agree peak oil and supply issues are something definitely not to ignore, and have put much thought into it. But trading it is another matter. This gradual and until now orderly price ascent in crude has very real world ramifications, and demand destruction is beginning to set it. I am not outright short (nor do I admit to having balls that large to do so). I am merely in USO and CL puts and stand to lose a fixed amount if I am wrong. But if Israel does indeed bomb Iran over the weekend, and Iran retaliates by blocking the strait of Hormuz, I recommend *anyone* buying long dated USO/CL at open puts if crude trades at $200+. Those prices are not sustainable; I don't care if 15 million barrels/day are blocked from market. Rationing and price control forces will set in to cap this thing (as our policymakers have clearly shown a lack of ability to learn from past follies). 2 very recent articles of mine touch on this: http://scriabinop23.blogspot.com/2008/06/ecb-missing-point-with-crude.html http://scriabinop23.blogspot.com/2008/05/crude-oil-on-direction-and-equity.html
Again today (June 6) short covering dominated CL. After bottoming in the first hour the undertone of persistent buying, so evident yesterday, remained evident and carried on throughout today. Plenty of points were there to take from the sequential downswings/upswings. Check just how the mo-fo went through the session today (10am -2.30pm); down 136, up 206, down 91,up 280, down 79, up 186, down 146, up 83, down 79, up 100, down 75, up 185, down 70, up 134, down 74. ".. ah bubbling crude.. oil that is .. black gold .. Texas tea"
How is day trading any more of a gamble than taking a position? I've never understood this line of thinking, which is why I've been a day trader for over 20 years.
I love all the bullshit excuses that people are using to blame for the run up 'people are worried' 'inflation fears' 'Iran' 'crude supplies are low' why can't people tell the truth. its gonna take someone to get into alot of trouble before the reality appears.
Does the fact that oil is finite mean that it can be different this time? In spite of the supply demand issues I still think the price of crude oil is mainly driven by the war in Iraq and the possibility of further conflict in the Middle East. There were 3 news items on Friday, Morgan Stanley predicting $150 crude by July 4, the U.S. jobs report, and Israel stating they would take military action against Iran if they don't stop their nuclear program. We have seen numerous oil price predictions and economic reports before that did not move the oil market that much. However the threat of further conflict in the Middle East and we get a + $10.00 move in crude oil in one day. This also begs the hard question for Congress and the Bush administration as they point fingers at speculators and oil executives, did the invasion of Iraq cause this unprecedented bull run in crude oil? http://tradingcrude.blogspot.com/
oil was just catching up to natty gas last week wish I was long natty a yr or so ago when it was tanking
oil was just catching up to natty gas last week wish I was long natty a yr or so ago when it was tanking .... Don't we all. I guess Brian Hunter and Amaranth were right after all. Just a little early, and perhaps some position sizing issues. http://www.wallstreetfighter.com/2006/09/brian-hunter-got-crushed-in-natural.html