After this type of price action, we all know someone gets the idea the party is soon to be over .. no more playing games. CL puts bought at 134. (I wasn't in the mkt before this)
its what kicked it off, then you had a short squeeze. it happened at the exact same time (i trade both). this IS what set it off, regardless of what you guys think. Now it is just a case of perception going forward and a major squeeze. it does not matter if the dollar went up by 1% and crude went 5. The ECB DID set this off.
The implied vol must be through the roof, those CL puts must be mighty expensive. I don't see how you can make money barring a catastrophic collapse in oil, which I don't see happening from these levels. Maybe if we were at $150, but not now.
Actually not so bad ... 37% august and 30% July (according to my optiontrader screen). But yes, I do plan on a 'collapse' (or at least $10-15 move short term) - after this sort of price action. No refinery or end user buys oil like we just saw. And speculators are weak hands.
How is it foolish? What is your reason for this? As far as I can see it, oil will go higher, even if supply and demand remain the same. The reason is the dollar continue to hit new low every day. Until dollar stop it's decline, oil will continue to goes up.