Oil Run up

Discussion in 'Trading' started by SCI new york, Jun 6, 2008.

  1. Cutten

    Cutten

    "Around the corner" is meaningless during the momentum phase of a bull market. The top might occur this week, but we could see another $15 or even $50 of upside in that period for all we know. Look at the top in gold and silver in 1980 - the last few days experienced a price advance as large as a good chunk of the entire preceeding decade's bull market.

    Momentum bull markets require capitulation before they top out. We still have not had capitulation. The price got to 138 - but the high 2 weeks ago was 135, so we are only 1-3 dollars into new high territory. Typically a bull market has a big move to significant new highs before topping out, not a mere 1-2% above prior highs. So IMO we are talking at least $145+ before any kinda of top is likely.

    Another thing you normally need to see before a bull run ends is a major reversal day, and a change in the market tone from bullish to bearish. We haven't seen that yet.

    So IMO although the bull run is getting long in the tooth, in terms of price we could still see quite a bit more upside. And there is a nice stop at $120ish, so it's not as though the bulls have to take open-ended risk.
     
    #91     Jun 11, 2008