Yep, I went long term short Thursday, got my call options to boot as my hedge. Let's see how many tries to find the top this time, took 23 trades last time to find the high. But using options as hedge way to go to make money on losing futures trades.
What keeps OPEC together? Why is there an oil market, which controls the price of Oil? How does OPEC and the Market decide who gets what? China, India, United States? What Price of Oil threashold is it that creates an alternative Energy feasability? ES P.S. Short answers please so that I may understand.
Why is oil priced where it is? 1) Perceptions of the supply & demand in oil (actively "managed" perceptions). 2) Some reality of the actual supply & demand in oil (just some). 3) Where is the US Dollar at today (oil stuck indexed to US dollars.....@#$^%) 4) The BID in futures through middle eastern trading entities (and boy do they have some nice liquidity to play this game).
Short term set up looks good here imo going into next week.....91.15 and 90.50 are my first targets (02-11 contract).
In June 2008 it hit $147.27 and within 6 months, in January of 2009, it was down to $33.20. A nice short. Didn't Goldman call give a $200 call when it was $147? Looking at the chart I'd say it can run to somewhere between the $100-120, range, say around $110, and then would make a nice short. We'll see how it plays out. It's seemly taken on a life of it's own to some degree, like it did before, and is not in lock step with supplies and the strength or weakness of the USD. Stay tuned. http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=CLG11&t=CANDLE&size=L&v=2&g=1&p=MN&qb=1&style=technical Merry Christmas to all of you and Happy Holidays.
I am pretty sure GS was in there with others accumulating the massive SHORT inventory that was building from 144's up in July 2008 (I know the Middle Eastern trading entities were......I would even say they put the TOP in oil with all that liquidity they worked SHORT that summer). What a smart move too....they loaded up SHORT in oil futures to play the move down as they left the BID!!! :eek: I will say though, if the US Dollar has another big leg down the next 3 to 6 months, oil should definitely run north of the $100 level again. The CL market should stay great for trading into 2011......great daily ranges with lots of multi-day swings!
I trade CL, intraday swings on a 5-min chart. I started trading it live in April, and have been able to comfortably use a 15-20 tick protective stop from the low $70's through the recent low $90's. For those who traded it at higher prices, is there a price zone at which the intraday swings/5-min bar ranges expand enough that the intra-bar volatility would necessitate wider stops to keep one safely in the trade?
Wow, those were some sweet ranges. Looks like some of those days, you could net a good month's pay on a single 10-lot breakout trade