Well said. Curve is getting flatter and flatter. There's the interest rates kicker too, but I think you're right that the driver of price is going to continue to be politics. My Liberal Arts education tried really hard to tell me otherwise, but I believe Iran and Saudi Arabia are merely despotic states that wholly rely on (comparative) economic stability to prevent an Arab Spring that might make Egypt's look like a Gandhi protest. As a Houstonian, I know a lot of oil and gas folks. Although they obviously had a vested interest in believing otherwise, I don't think many of them were prepared to embrace the fact that 35 was gonna be a thing when I first suggested it. I also don't think it takes a genius to see that the Saudi's are relying on the same (inverse) approach to controlling the oil economy that first brought this relic of British Imperialism to relevance in the 70's. They're gonna undercut U.S. producers until not only production but capacity takes a dive. Then it will be back to business as usual for OPEC while the U.S. shale industry takes another 5 years levering up financially to get capacity back to a point where it challenges the necessity of OPEC. It's going to be a vicious cycle that I predict may eventually bring an end to us propping up these regimes up. This might be the first time I've ever made a prediction on this forum, let's hope this doesn't come back to make me look stupid in a decade.
It's hard to factor in the hyperloop, electric cars. Cheep gas has hurt solar in the past, but with Isis and screw the Russians now in the politics... we are pumping out oil also. And a growing concern about the quality of air we breathe as the world population grows... I don't think it is likely, but it is possible demand for oil may be different in even 5 - 10 years. Wouldn't it be interesting if demand never came up enough to make the price of a barrel able to keep (whatever you want to call them) in power.
Goldman once predicted a $200 price. Anybody can guess, maybe $30.xx is my guess, based on very little, just a guess.
Really good support in 24 area. I was trying to find lows earlier in year, then stopped as chart patterns shows sells so I have stayed on sidelines, it just guessing game of how low is low, guess I will wait till magazines start talking about $10 bucks then lows would be in.
LOL, I can't do that, have traded my system since 1994, I have done well trading my way, so..I will wait.
Well, logic dictates that GS and CB make a number of valid fundamental points, and crude valuation appears to agree thus far. Trying to time market tops and bottoms without supporting price action has always been chippy business no matter what the instrument.
There are always many "valid fundamental points" for fundamental analysis when thing goes one direction but then all these "valid fundamental points" are wrong when things go another direction, that's why using fundamental analysis to trade is a horrible idea and good thing for investment banks to conflict people since they know fact A B C are what commonly believe and tell you a target they they want you to believe but then they actually know the trend will be end or there is a true reason fact D that drives that trend that would not just stop at the target that they told you. Anyway they tell you something to conflict you or not accurate enough for some kind of advantage for themselves.