Oil Prices

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by libertad, Aug 11, 2005.

  1. The next big move....???

    Up....Down ?

  2. Just a rough guess based on the last consolidation period on the daily chart, I figure we're good until ~$68.36.
  3. We may go a little ways up... maybe $68.
    But, summer is over... seasonality says we go down.
    Inventories are piling up.
    The economy is stalling in my view... worldwide.
    I don't believe a word of what the chinese are saying, they're lying.
    I think coyote hasn't realized he's walking on thin air...
    $55 is a good number.

    If not, there's something big going on that I don't know.
    Chinese swapping dollars for oil?
  4. Why do you say seasonality points down? I track seasonality, too, and I see the first opportunity for a seasonal decline in oil to be Oct to Nov.

    Of course, different methodologies will yield different results, I'm just curious as to how yours works.

  5. I can't oil across the board is at highs, especially heating oil and its the freakin summer! Then again, elect a Bush and you get war and high oil.
  6. We have spent billions on Iraq, where is the sweet deal on oil we were supposed to get?
  7. please understand..

    oil only matters to equities if price of it is going down...

    as per greenie,bushy and ppt
  8. If you were long oil for the last year and a half, that would have been a sweet deal. :D
  9. If by "we" you mean the Oil companies, including the war industry in general, the deal could not have been any sweeter.
    ...as an example, Chevron's and the rest oilco's profits speak for themselves....

    If by "we' you mean the avg person living here, well...we are paying for it...
  10. I understood that world production is around 83 mn barrels per day, and current consumption is around 82 mn barrels per day. China uses around 6 mn barrels per day for it's 1.3 bn inhabitants, and the US uses around 21 mn barrels for it's under 300 mn inhabitants.

    Things are not going to improve in a long time. As other parts of the world start getting up to speed economically, pressure continues to build.

    Any next large conflict will certainly be interesting.

    Before the new millennium, the saudis and iranians were coming closer. After the events in the region, it could seem like ideology differ strongly between saudis and iranians again. But the tilted reactions in the aftermath around parts of the world, has brought ethnicity to the front line - in my opinion it has helped unite the region in some way.

    At least a test of the imaginary US$ 80 ATH adjusted to inflation from the seventies oil-crisis seems fair.
    #10     Aug 12, 2005