Oil Prices...Why Not Less Than $35

Discussion in 'Economics' started by libertad, Oct 8, 2006.

  1. It will not happen because Opec and other non Opec producers will never allow it to happen. Look what happened at 58? A wisper of cutting production and back to $60 plus.

    The only way it's coming back to down to pre-war prices is major advances in car tech, that's it.
  2. or massive global recession..

  3. Surdo


    Six OPEC States Agree to Cut 1 Million Barrels a Day
    By Julie Ziegler and Andy Critchlow

    Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Six OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, cut oil output by a total of 1 million barrels a day in an effort to revive prices that lost a quarter of their value in recent months, a spokesman for the group said.

    The agreed cut, which represents a 3.4 percent reduction from OPEC's September total, has ``already happened,'' Levi Ajuonuma said in a phone interview in Nigeria today. The cutbacks, which include pledges made by Venezuela and Nigeria late last month to cut sales by a total of 170,000 barrels a day, are ``voluntary,'' he said.

    Crude oil futures declined 5 percent last week to $59.76 a barrel and are down 24 percent from a record $78.40 a barrel on July 14 as tensions in the Middle East eased and fuel stockpiles rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10 percent over the period as inflation fears receded and the Federal Reserve stopped a cycle of rate hikes.

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps 40 percent of the world's crude, agreed at a meeting on Sept. 11 to leave a production quota for 10 of its members unchanged at 28 million barrels a day. Since the meeting, the group's so-called basket oil price dropped 9.3 percent to $55.07 a barrel. Iraq isn't subject to quotas.

    The 11-member group normally increases production ahead of the peak demand period during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

    Falling Fast

    ``Not only is the price level important, but the precipitous nature of the oil price decline is an important factor behind OPEC action this time,'' said Brad Bourland, chief economist for Samba Financial Group, Saudi Arabia's second-largest publicly traded bank by market value.

    ``OPEC does not have a stated price target at the moment, but it is becoming clear that the organization will act to support a price between $50 and $60 a barrel.''

    The oil exporters group regulates supply through a production quota system, which applies to all members except Iraq. The quota last changed in July 2005 when it was raised by 500,000 barrels a day to 28 million barrels a day.

    Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Nigeria are joined in the group of six by Kuwait, Libya and Algeria, Ajuonuma said. OPEC may announce tomorrow whether it plans to hold an emergency meeting to ratify the informal agreement, he said. The group is next scheduled to meet in Abuja, Nigeria on Dec. 14.

    Iran Backs Cut

    Iran, the group's second-largest producer, said it would back the output cut, according to a statement by Kazem Vaziri- Hamaneh, the country's Oil Minister, carried on the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency Web site today.

    ``Iran supports any kind of OPEC production cut,'' he said. He did not confirm whether the Islamic Republic would join the cut.

    The ten OPEC states participating in the group's output quota system pumped 27.63 million barrels a day in September, according to Bloomberg data.
    By Julie Ziegler and Andy Critchlow

  4. isn't OPEC already cutting supply?

    Lets fire up those oil pumps in Iraq and get on with the plan already? We do not need no "sticken" crisis to start this do we?

    (the crisis may not be what you think and what we are protecting may not be as it seems :))
  5. www.steorn.net

    Interesting developments right now over there. No way this is a hoax - however, maybe they will be proven wrong.
  6. dandx wrote:

    The only way it's coming back to down to pre-war prices is major advances in car tech, that's it.


    Exactly right...

    Toyota has planned 1 million plus plug in hybrids by 2010...

    The Bush admin should engage GM and FORD to get on track...

    By the way...the battery setup for Toyota is US based...

    There is over $100 billion paper barrels that have to unwind...This is why it really is possible to spiral down hard and excessively...has little to do with actual demand supply...

    Just look at nat gas...