I'm trying to understand how crowded the "oil to $200!" position really is. At this point, is there anybody "serious" calling for a near-term return to $40/$50 oil?
If Chanos is right about China, then I would think that oil would definately drop significantly. As for timing.... who gets that right?
Tonight oil is trading back above $80 a barrel, I don't care what anyone says this economy could never withstand $200 oil, let alone $100-$150 oil. This economy is extremely weak now, $100+ oil would be a huge problem to an economic recovery, that's not even close by to begin with. $3.00 gas is high enough, with tens of million of people out of work do you honestly think $100+ is even probable. The economy was at least 100x better when oil was at $125+, oil at $80 right now makes no sense.
$130 by july, $50 by 2013 ..have options corresponding to my opinion get ready for the mother of all breakouts
It's a market that can be manipulated relatively easily. And it can be manipulated longer than you can stay solvent. Anyone who works in the oil industry will tell you there is no demand at the moment. If Equities hit a new high don't be surprised if Brent Crude hits 100 The manipulation is overt and highly predictable. 1/ GS comes out with some nonsense prediction saying crude demand is higher and will go to 200. 2/ The sheiks in OPEC come out a few days later saying they're cutting output ( although OPEC output cuts have NEVER been followed) 3/ The blathering idiots in the controlled American press put a full court press on Peak Oil ( a nonsense theory perpetuated by the oil industry ) The fact that high energy prices will prolong and even depress any economic recovery escapes the charlatans in DC. Otherwise the exchanges would be forced to implement position limits like with Agri-Commodities.
We got one more correction, then the mother of all breakouts. And dude, you really gotta toss that screen name.
Because he said it, that's why. BTW is it me or is it the new users are all starting to have some really bizarre usernames. This site is starting to resemble Marketwatch
I agree to a fair degree with Chanos on China. Haven't seen him explicitly say anything about oil, but Rogers disagrees with him, so you may be right, his China position can be viewed as a proxy for oil bearishness. To everyone else - thanks for the input - I'm not looking for your positions or trading suggestions, I'm trying to determine how consistent the "expensive oil" sentiment is amongst the leading analysts/prognosticators/etc. There were lots of oil bears in late 2008, and as usual they nicely marked the bottom. Can't seem to find many now, though. Roubini occasionally makes some noises that way, but as is his style, everything is qualified 18 times from Sunday so he can always point at something he said and claim to have been correct.