The IEA has forecasted $45 in 2010... http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1635198,00.html The conquest of Iraq´s Oil has been achieved by enhanced legal access through PSAs which hands over to the biggest multinationals the full access and control of the majority of the Iraqs oil reserves...and thus allows the world´s economy more breathing room with regards to oil prices... http://villagevoice.com/news/0548,ridgeway,70401,2.html To be sure...many innocent individuals paid dearly for these lower oil prices... And perhaps ...many hedge fund oil price spikers...will not enjoy the party...
You neglect to mention that this is a 30% increase in their oil price target. That's hardly bearish news for oil. Martin
They should just come out and say "we're idiots and don't have a clue as to what we're saying, but we'll say it anyway" Instead of........ " We expect in 2010 WTI will be around $45. We have analysed the 200 most important oil fields in the world and looked at the projects under construction, asking how much oil these projects can bring to the market ... We have also looked at refinery capacity. These projects will not deliver as much to the market as we had hoped. " No one has a good grasp on what the *demand* will be in 10 years. Therefore to try and predict where crude prices will be is a futile and useless endeavor.
Excellent Commentary The Guardian UK...reprinted the IEA piece... The Village Voice which ranks right up there with Mad Magazine reprinted the Iraq piece...Several publications picked up the same story...Yeah you are right...I cannot stand hippie think crap either...so here's another link with the same story...author... Other link: http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2005/crudedesigns.htm ................................................. I have never mentioned but one price entry on oil..on ET...and that was shorting it during Katrina...just lucky I guess...but here again I have been "just lucky" since 1978... What is interesting is viewing the true supply demand info. along with the price movement...it is suggestive that "speculative elements" are in current prices...Government based statistics are very dry...and are just stated...there are no salesmen in security firms hawking right or wrong... ..................................................... You will never hear info. regarding the real reason why the US is in Iraq by news companies such as Fox...but as I have mentioned in many previous posts... "If you want the truth...just follow the money....and do not listen to anything else..."...Looks like Halliburton and the Internationals have made/will make a little change... Cutting to the chase...the internationals will have control and privilege to over 70% of Iraq's oil production currency...not the Iraqis... Congrats Halliburton Cheney and Trust Account Bush...If these guys can stay on the legal side ...they have some sizeable oil related change coming to them..."after they leave office".... All LEGAL....of course....lol...but I really do not like the way Bush/Cheney played the US govt...nor do I liked how innocent people paid for it... I frankly have no respect for 4 deferment Vietnam avoidance Halliburton Cheney....and less respect for his patsy...Trust Acct National Guard Bush...but what do ya know...they just may get away with their scheme... It would have been better for me ..if Cheney/Bush just said...hey...we are going to take Iraqi oil because we do not have it..and we want it ...This would have been honest...and furthermore we are not going to pursue renewable energy because my cronies would not benefit from it..hey my cronies are me cronies...I just like to hear it straight.... The conquest for oil has been won as prescribed...and the Iraqis might end up with 17% of the revenues...if they are lucky... Hey...countries have always won by conquests..be it economic force...or military force...but make no mistake...a conquest is all about "takin what you want"...if you are big enough...even though it means killing other peoples' kids.... Anyway...just more regurgitated crap on a saturday...like most of the ET posts...I hate it when the markets are closed... .............................................................
fwiw- The 2002 forecast said that oil prices would "rise steadily to $29 in 2030." It also said that in 2005 oil would be at $21. Maybe Arch Crawford knows someone in his field that could have gotten a little closer. DS
dougcs wrote: fwiw- The 2002 forecast said that oil prices would "rise steadily to $29 in 2030." It also said that in 2005 oil would be at $21. Maybe Arch Crawford knows someone in his field that could have gotten a little closer. DS ..................................................................................... Yeah...actually what I found to be most interesting about the numbers is that they seemed so low...however this does suggest inflated values currently...because of other reasons not included in their numbers.... I shorted oil during Katrina because the story was so one sided and hyped out... All in all though...everything on ET is in the entertainment category.....just blowin out gas like everybody else on ET... Just more useless blabber...