The fed can do little to reinflate the credit bubble that is bursting. They got us out of the 2003 recession by causing a housing bubble. This tool is now out of the arsenal. So how will the economy get out of the 2007-2008 recession? Commodities will crash including oil. $1.4 gasoline will get the consumer back on track.
Oil is headed to $70 before it's ever headed to $28. There is real and growing demand for oil on a global basis, and the costs of extracting the oil keep rising. Ethanol, solar, wind - they're all drops in the bucket when it comes to the energy needs that have to be supplied by oil.
They wish they could cut rates but with the value of the dollar looking weaker everyday the chance of a rate cut is 0%%%%%% Next cut should come end of 2007 early 2008, I think there is more of a chance of a raise than a cut.
Friend of mine has been on the PO bandwagon for a while...been buying crude since the mid-teens. He's scaled back his futures position considerably to focus on the farming/solar home building (he's a true Peak Oiler)... What's interesting is the unbelievable contango that has developed. Looking at the K/Z spread will tell you how not worried the market is about supply... $40 floor, and probably a solid concrete one at that...
Could you share why the price target is exactly $28? This is pre-2001 levels (before credit/housing bubble), which makes sense, but why exactly $28? Also can someone explain how $30 oil will affect firms that bought contracts at $50. That implies oil is dead.
too bad oil is not just US thing. FED can do little about it. There is a increasing demand for oil globally.
I think it is strange how people think the fed/government has complete control over everything, prices, housing, temperature. Do you really think Uncle Sam is that smart and effective. Sam's not Superman like we were told as kids. Closer to a stumbling drunk.