Oil Manipulation

Discussion in 'Trading' started by itradeopt, Apr 23, 2008.

  1. Guess not.
    Welcome to ET!
    LOL!
    :p
     
    #11     Apr 23, 2008
  2. Landis hardly adds page views. That's why you won't catch him starting threads, he knows no one will respond!:D

    I don't know who was hated more...landis...apex capital...or waggie.

    I'd place landis inbetween tuderjones and BnB for most irrellevant on ET.:D
     
    #12     Apr 23, 2008
  3. I find it amusing Landis is considered 'irrelevant' when he has posted dozens of relevant posts regarding individual stocks and macro views.

    The two things irrelevant here on ET are all these "I've got a conspiracy theory" and "Bernanke is bailing out his Wall Street friends printing money 24/7" threads.
     
    #13     Apr 23, 2008
  4. mak,

    dont forget the threads where people casually mention they bot the bottom or sold the top or both( long after the markets moved). Or the threads where they announce they're big time professionals who trade huge size so you'd better no doubt a word they say.
     
    #14     Apr 23, 2008
  5. shfly

    shfly

    This copied from realmoney...

    If it happens...should at the very least give the commodities a breather...


    Tony Crescenzi Blog
    G7 Could Be Considering Currency Intervention
    By Tony Crescenzi
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/23/2008 12:58 PM EDT
    URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/tcrescenziblog/10413373.html

    Today, Canada's Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told Bloomberg that the recent G7 statement had not affected the currency markets, implying that he and others expected that it would.

    Earlier in the day, Luxemborg's Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who like Flaherty attended G7 meeting, said with respect to the currency markets, "I don't like the way things are developing." He noted that "everyone has to know that the G7 in its recent statement was very clear," and said "it was not the intention of the G7 to lead to the result we are noting today."

    I've been collecting G7 statements such as these since the April 11 G7 meeting, and I notice that meeting participants feel the recent G7 statement was something much bigger than markets have treated it. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde likened the statement to the 1985 Plaza Accords (see below), which was of course was a monumental event for the currency markets. Others have said the markets misunderstood the gravity of the statement.

    This has me thinking that a major round of currency intervention is in the realm of possibility, even though this apparently was not discussed at the time by G7 participants, according to Flaherty.

    Of course, for a market that trades $3 trillion per day, intervention has only symbolic value unless it is backed by policy actions, such as the Fed ending its rate cuts. This reality could affect the timing of any decision to intervene.

    Moreover, it is usually best that intervention occur when some sort of pain threshold has already been reached for speculators, which is obviously not now the case. In other words, the best time to intervene is when the market has already begun to move in the desired direction. Losses make a speculator honest.

    A rally in the dollar would dent the commodity rally and benefit nations worldwide. In light of food shortages and the problems associated with energy costs, it behooves the G7 and other nations to interrupt the commodity rally, to make it less than the one-way bet it has become. This can be accomplished with a reversal in the dollar.

    I have been in the camp that expects the dollar to slowly fall, except in 2005, when I thought the drop would be interrupted by a U.S. interest rate environment that would be higher than most expected, which turned out to be the case. A key factor shaping the dollar's drop is diversification, with the dollar moving from 70% of reserve assets to about 63%. The euro has ascended from 20% to 27%, which means there is room for this sort of diversification to continue. Nevertheless, it is time to slow it and break the back of the commodity bubble, which is rooted in part in the weakness of the U.S. dollar.

    Here are a few other quotes from participants at the recent G7 meeting:

    April 14, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said investors haven't grasped the magnitude of the Group of Seven's shift in stance on exchange rates, likening its significance to the 1985 Plaza Accord. "It's a strong statement which I am not sure the markets have yet fully understood and appreciated," Lagarde said in an interview on Bloomberg Television in New York. The April 11 statement was "not very different" from the importance of the 1985 Plaza Accord, she said. The Group of Five at the time agreed to "coordinated intervention" to drive down the dollar.

    April 17, by Luxemborg's Juncker: "I don't have the impression that financial markets and other actors have correctly and entirely understood the message of the G-7 meeting."

    April 17, Axel Weber, president of the Bundesbank: "Recent movements on foreign-exchange markets are of concern for us. "We've seen some excessive volatility that is not conducive to sustainable growth."


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market, first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

    TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Trader's Library under which it receives a portion of the revenue from purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.
     
    #15     Apr 23, 2008
  6. The commodity futures markets are not being manipulated by conspiracy, but they are being manipulated by sheer market size. Imagine if you will, that you, me, your 2 best friends and george soros sat down to play poker at a no limit table. Who do you think will walk away with all the money?
     
    #16     Apr 23, 2008
  7. IMF is about to sell 400 tons of gold.

    The oil and dollar is part of the -inevitable- commodity cycle.
     
    #17     Apr 23, 2008