Getting short again. TBT looks great but I think we may sell as hard as November soon and I do not know how TBT will react. Im short XOM but Im also getting short Oil.
Prob not a bad trade at this point, all the tech signs and spread collapse never garnered the momentum it should have for a larger correction, we always knew the fundamentals sucked hairy donkey balls, but even with turning techs you can't find a solid bid. I have given up on a move over $50 now.
Yea my thinking isn't on the technical side, although I have huge respect, this time its fundys. That price action freaked me out, now the news of strike makes it clearer to me. Most I see out of strike if it comes to pass is mid 42 range. Although I have to accept 45 is possible and I cant get shaken. I need to be able to hold till end of contract which will imo break lows. It is going to be one big "do not want" I am caught between not wanting to miss the strong move, and a possible squeeze followed by the big move down. I might use options on an etf
gentlemen there are other markets that are making new weekly or monthly highs and oil is just another "whale" in the financial ocean it does not matter if you go long or short oil for a "trade" as long as this gentleman is on your side www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1C8d2qZrbA&feature=related
Not to hijack this thread, but why do people keep saying banks aren't lending? I'm in the market to buy a house and I'm using bank of america for the mortgage - I asked the guy about banks not lending. He said "you kidding? I'm slightly less busy than I was at the height of the subprime. Slightly." Banks are lending just fine. If they're not lending to people not qualified, then good. That's kinda how it's supposed to be.
Agreed: My 19 year old daughter got a used car loan. Got a phone call a couple of weeks ago from a lender offering me a low interest rate home loan. Banks are finally doing what they did 20 years ago; lending to people that can PAY the debt.
My usual reminder for CL: you must deploy a reliable methodology for the days play. Very recently, the oil market is having less gyrations with Friday (Jan 30 2009) too in a slightly narrower range at 143 points. Nevertheless you carry on exploiting the days gyrations; that is buying the upmoves, selling the downmoves sequentially. Overall the sequence in Fridays gyrations (up/down repeating 10.00 to 14.30 on Jan 30) produced 11 macro 'legs' of minimum 35 points. The mean average of those 11 'legs' was 83 points per 'leg'. Therefore between 10.00am and 14.30pm, thats still more than 900 points which were on offer. If you capture most or a even a portion of the points per leg for all or most of the legs you can build daily profits into a plan of accumlating gains day on day.
I am going to revert back to my revious analysis, that i need to see 39.26 tested and hodl 6x conecutively before the base is in
Again: Oil will always be the life blood of the WORLD. Don't believe you can make plastic from the SUN, WIND, TIDE, and GEOTHERMAL. Although Gore, Soros, and others would like you to believe. As a professional scientist for 10 years, discoveries point to oil as regenerative. Meaning that environmental and chemistry conditions keep the stuff coming, in other words, not a finite source if utilized properly with no GLUT. Also, it looks like Oil has become the currency base. I believe oil will stabilize at $75 and the support is $40. Oil at less than $60 only shows the producers that they can't have financial dominion over the WORLD. The Global Financiers still, and always will, RULE.