The bear pattern is holding up so far. On the fundamental side, the hurricane in the gulf is likely to miss oil facilities.
This pattern frequently occurs after the completion of an Elliott Wave 3 that has subdivided into 5 smaller waves. This then typically leads to an engulfing pattern Wave (A) down to an area of support that can be found around 98.40 on the USO chart. Should get one heck-of-a-"bounce" shortly. FYI, Sept. Crude is the front month now.
I don't know about the engulfing pattern, I never got too much into candlesticks, but I do suspect that an important top is in place for the crude markets, maybe even "the" top. Longer term I'd expect oil to start trading in a range of $70/$100 per barrel.
The Nat-Gas ETF (UNG) just passed the 50% retracement level today. A 61.8% retracement from the lows of last December comes in around $45.20, which just happens to be near the highs of last Nov and August. See attached chart.
Here's a chart of DVN. Already hit the 61.8% retracement last Thursday, intra-day at 94.91 Re-test in progress. APA hit the same retracement. CHK getting there. FYI: The FBR analyst, Rehan Rashid put out a report on DVN reiterating his "Outperfrom" rating yesterday with a $140 target over the next 12 months ( expects a 5% share buyback, similar to what the company did back in late 2004; among other catalysts such as a full year 2008 production guidance increase from drilling efficiencies, increased North American capex, and additional clarification of the option value from 950,000 acres in "unconventional" lower risk drilling plays in the US and Canada, not too pention the 500,000 acres with Haynesville Shale potential in Louisiana). Earnings call on August 6th.