i was one of those people. oil is plummetting, could bottom soon, might not. of course, the us just issued an order to an aircraft carrier group to sail for the middle east. These ships are equipped with mine sweepers. There's always an "october surprise" during midterm elections... could a surprise attack on iran be it this year? don't scoff, the administration is bold/stupid enough to do it without any support from the other gov branches...
Not exactly convincing, no short covering bounce this time whatsoever. I would rather get on the train while it's moving in the right direction.
Here is my take on this, looking at the daily, monthly charts - still bearish. I don't trade CL, but double top clearly seen along with MACD and RSI a weak B class divergence for that matter IMO. Right now I don't believe it is worth taking the risk by initiating a long position as charts do not show bottom, just yet.
i bit... 1 long qm 58.80. will add another at 56.00 or so. target 62. also short qg 3 avg 5.66. target 4.10-5.00.
All the best on that one, though I feel that weak hands are yet to be shaken further. Where is your stop btw?
I know I'm going against every trend follower rule in the book here on oil, and picking bottoms is often considered a lost cause because probability of being accurate is low ... With that in mind: A breakthrough 54 might be a good time to get out -- If this selloff continues too quickly, I won't average in at 56, though, and may just exit sooner, however. So often in these markets, the selling happens before the reports, and everyone short covers on reports. For me, the position is relatively small so I may be patient with it beyond fixed stops/etc ... given the fundamentals, 58 is getting cheap. This 30/40 per barrel talk is ridiculous. So we'll see, but I think tommorow may hold a surprise ... look at OPEC basket - 57 something as of yesterday, so I assume 55 something when updated. Its easy to get used to $70 oil -- $55 is a little weak, considering costs of new development projects. regardless of my position, the next few days will be a crucial test for the whole commodities group of gold/oil/silver/etc -- The $60 level is broken, but how well defined a break is it? Even if we went down to 55 tommorow, and had a short cover and fundamentals rally back to 60 the following 2 days, I still would define support at 60. We've been hugging the 60 zone for a while, and that is worth something.
Hope some of you made some money off my bottom call and then the short following soon after. Its been a nice ride down. It is starting to head into a huge support zone from 56-58. There are specific entries for a bottom between the prices but I am going to let it tell me when its ready to stop falling. I will update when to go long and it will probably be another $2.50- 3 dollar profit with a .20 stop. If you are short I would take 80% off the table now. Here is an updated chart from the bottom and then the short that was constructed several weeks ago.
10 pts in 2 days in the OIH says buy. It showed some divergence today when it didn't break 120. I'd look for a bounce tomorrow and maybe retest the low. I know ETFs better than the commodity, but another 2 pt drop in oil sounds like a leg down.