Rearden - glad to see you in the Oil forum!! I don't trade stocks or options so while it was fun watching your other calls, could not really participate. On this trade a few questions: 1) At what price level would you exit this trade - profit and loss? I know you said if it gaps you will exit some, but what price level would you be looking for? 2) Would you say you typically go against the trend when trading crude? 3) Was this trade initiated on more technical analysis or a 'gut feeling'? Thanks for posting!
Rearden Metal Registered: Jan 2003 Posts: 3990 09-12-06 03:46 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from Bitstream: typical flush out towards the end of the session, that's usually a bull. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It'll gap up tomorrow. I'll look to exit on the open, at least partially. Easy money. Edit/Delete ⢠Quote ⢠Complain ********************************************************************* For only holding in one overnight session??? Wow that is SHORT TERM....
I bought a couple of contracts at 63.75 for the gambling account. I couldnt help myself. And its not called my gambling account for no reason, its for my compulsive trades..
How humble. Ha. This isn't an equity. But this may base somewhere in here which I've been saying in other threads for a couple of days, and warning people not to try and swing trade this short It would be nice to see one more capitulation tank. The other thing I mentioned is that when there is some news, especially, to turn this around there will obviously be a <b>MAJOR short squeeze</b> because everyone you know and even the grandmother that lives down the street from you that you've never met is short crude. Plus somewhere in here someone may step in and just initiate a major buy. We'll see what happens. Good luck with your trades.
Ive been averaging down all week and Friday last week on USO... I think the refiners look good....ALJ, VLO, DK, WNR....didnt really go down as much as they should have with crude getting "pounded like a rented gerbil" (quote credit to Rearden...hahah) Also ECA for a bounce if Rearden is correct.
Im sure everone has seen this but just in case.... from the VLO thread on yahoo Goldman Sachs: Oil Price Fall Overdone;Risk To The Upside Tuesday September 12nd, 2006 / 18h04 LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Goldman Sachs' (GS) commodities research arm said Tuesday the hefty fall in the price of crude oil to a five-and-a-half month low was overdone and falling retail fuel prices would underpin demand and maintain robust growth. Goldman Sachs, whose commodity index has attracted some $60 billion of funds and in which crude and natural gas have about a 50% combined weight, said in a note: "We believe that the risks are now biased on the upside" and it would keep its forecast for U.S., light, sweet crude in the final quarter of this year unchanged at $75 a barrel. Crude futures have fallen 17% since they hit a high in mid-July of $78.40/bbl, as concerns about a slowdown in economies, a perceived easing of tension in the Middle East and healthy fuel stockpiles came together. Tuesday September 12nd, 2006
Thanks for sharing that. Of course Goldman, as we know, was the one that called crude to $100. I'm sure they don't like this selloff with such a large, long position. Wonder if they bought any puts as insurance just in case? Or maybe they're buying calls now.
Here's a 3 month chart for crude. Notice the high volume yesterday and today. A good sign for a reversal maybe.
Thank you. "Pounded like a rented gerbil" is an awesome catch-phrase to describe disasters, and it <b>is</b> my original work. ( See- No one else has ever said it: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q="Pounded+like+a+rented+gerbil"&btnG=Google+Search ) As you can imagine, rented gerbils would be the unfortunate recipients of an especially rough and vigorous pounding experience, when compared with the more tender romantic encounters of privately owned gerbils. After all, you'll be returning the poor rodent right back to the rental office tomorrow, so why bother taking good care of it? That said, I <i>am</i> in need of a better catch-phrase to express my more positive emotions. <i>"I see the future"</i> is a bit plain, after all. "Champagne, blow & sluts"? Not too bad, but I really only consume blow... maybe two or three times a year, tops. No need to give false impressions, you know. (My endearing fondness for sluts on the other hand- now, that's eternal. ) "Bring me your second finest meats and cheeses"- rather second hand and unoriginal. "Booyah!" and "Kachingos!" are unsuitable, as these words are obviously meant for the exclusive use of complete morons. This is an issue I'm just going to have to solve for myself. I just thought I'd share this delicate creative thought process with the good people of ET tonight, that's all.