Oil hits record $122 on $200 oil prediction

Discussion in 'Economics' started by 2manywhiners, May 6, 2008.

  1. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080506/oil_prices.html

    Oil hits record $122 on $200 oil prediction, supply concerns
    Tuesday May 6, 10:55 am ET
    By John Wilen, AP Business Writer
    Oil prices rise to record $122 a barrel on prediction of $200 oil, supply concerns

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures blasted to a new record of $122 a barrel Tuesday, gaining momentum as investors bought on a forecast of much higher prices and on any news hinting at supply shortages. Retail gas prices edged lower, but appear poised to rise to new records of their own in coming weeks.

    A new Goldman Sachs prediction that oil prices could rise to $150 to $200 within two years seemed to motivate much of Tuesday's buying, although a falling dollar and increasing concerns about declining crude production in Mexico and Russia contributed, analysts say.

    Light, sweet crude for June delivery jumped to a new record of $122 a barrel before retreating slightly to trade up $1.92 at $121.89 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    Oil prices have nearly doubled from about $62 a barrel a year ago, which Goldman sees as a sign that the world is in the midst of a "super spike" in oil prices. Analyst Arjun Murti said in a research note released Monday that prices would ultimately force demand to fall sharply.

    Not everyone shares Goldman's view. Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., countered Goldman's analysis with a note predicting that crude prices could as easily fall to $40 a barrel as rise to $200 over the next two years because supplies are, as Evans put it, comfortable.

    James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla., trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com, said Goldman's prediction isn't necessarily new: "We've heard numbers like these out of Goldman Sachs, especially over the last 12 months."

    But there is a type of investor who responds to such predictions by buying, Cordier said.

    A falling dollar on Tuesday also gave traders reason to buy. Investors often buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation when the dollar falls, and a weaker greenback makes oil cheaper to investors overseas. Many analysts feel the dollar's protracted decline is the real reason oil prices have nearly doubled since last year.

    Cordier said investors are also increasingly concerned about falling oil production in Russia and Mexico, which are both major oil producers. And prices are still supported by the concerns about supply disruptions in Nigeria and northern Iraq that first drove crude past $120 a barrel on Monday. Militant attacks in Nigeria over the weekend cut some production at a Royal Dutch Shell PLC facility. In Iraq, Kurdish rebels warned they could launch suicide attacks against American interests to punish the U.S. for sharing intelligence with Turkey after Turkey bombed rebel bases in Iraq on Friday.

    At the pump, meanwhile, the national average price of a gallon of regular gas slipped 0.1 cent overnight to $3.61, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Analysts are split over how high gas will go; while prices have slipped lower since May 1, leading some analysts to say gas is close to peaking, others predict the fuel will follow oil's upward surge.

    "You're going to see new highs for gas prices, probably for the weekend," said Cordier, who predicts an average price of $4 a gallon in the coming weeks.

    In other Nymex trading Tuesday, June gasoline futures rose 5.24 cents to $3.1053 a gallon after earlier setting a new trading record of $3.1163. June heating oil futures rose 4.05 cents to $3.347 a gallon, and June natural gas futures rose 16.4 cents to $11.342 per 1,000 cubic feet.

    In London, June Brent crude futures rose $2.30 to $120.29 on the ICE Futures exchange.
  2. just added another 5 contracts at 121.60 , I love OIL :)
  3. considering the carnage in burma this week - if a hurricane even flirts with the gulf - prices will already be near $150 by the time hurricane season approaches, and if there's a cat 3 or higher that makes landfall between N.O. and Houston expect a fat spike...............after that oil will be sold all day long and twice on tuesday. especially if the dollar stays below 1.60 euro during this time frame.
  4. "A new Goldman Sachs prediction that oil prices could rise to $150 to $200 within two years seemed to motivate much of Tuesday's buying, although a falling dollar and increasing concerns about declining crude production in Mexico and Russia contributed, analysts say.

    These guys are brilliant to be able to make that kind of prediction so far down the road - factoring in demand reactions to those kinds of prices along with conservation actions, a new political administration, and everything else.

    Me - I'm dying to short the stuff but the entry is problematic. :)
  5. ^ get rid of your bias and just follow the charts.
  6. So do I.
    Just look at CL. Just look at the range each day. Just look at the gigantic pre-markets (8.30-10am) which was 194 points (cents) today (Tues 5/6/08). What is the dogshit on this thread about the price going up more soon? Why does anyone want CL to go up next day or next week when when this baby is moving big-time, like a mo-fo, every day - with big moves, up & down. What excuse is there for wanting the price to be big up or big down, tomorrow or next week, when the moves are big & many each day?
  7. My BP and XOM shares closed higher :)
  8. The amount of bullishness on this board today gives a hint that a pullback is due very soon, a big one.
  9. Famous GS quotes: 1) Bidu is worth exactly $27 a share.
    2) Abbey Joseph Cohen----end of year S&P forecast.
    3) I would put this price prediction in the above category.

    Ask yourself what is their motivation in telling this unsolicted market tip regarding price, without charging us a dime-----they make their clients pay heafty fees for "Solicited market advice"!
  10. It was Murti in March '05 that oil could trade up to $100 by 2009.

    If the dumb in the red states want McCain then they shouldn't be on tv crying about the price of gas at the pump. You get what you elect.
    #10     May 6, 2008