Old-timers when hearing these discussions would turn around and say, " You want to be right or you want to make money? Dont fight the tape."
"Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but what the tape does not concern itself with the why and wherefore. It doesn't go into explanations. The reason for what a certain stock does today may not be known for two or three days, or weeks, or months. But what the dickens does that matter? Your business with the tape is now - not tomorrow. The reason can wait. But you must act instantly or be left." Jesse Livermore
Very true and not a polar opposite to what I posted. I didn't say short your entire account. I know Livermore was in favor of keeping abreast of changing market conditions.
Crude is keeping to its typical seasonal pattern - bounce from mid-Dec low into early Jan before selling off hard into late Feb: http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/cl.html We also have lots of long-only cash coming into the market at the turn of the new year. The buy-n-holds are positive on the economy but wary of oil/inflation. As such, the best bet for this new cash is oil and oil related equities. *Oil has also strengthened with a weaker USD spurred by the last FOMC minutes. Ironically, the FOMC clearly suggested that higher energy prices could prompt them to continue raising rates ....
Don't you guys know about natural resource depletion and Hubbert's Peak of oil production? Why did you think oil prices have risen at 30-40% annual rates for the last three years? Oil's been ratcheting up for years. For the first time ever, oil production can't keep up with demand. The next step, which will happen soon, or already has happened, is that global production will level off, and then start to decline. I like to play this as futures options on crude and precious metals. Making out very well, expecially lately.
Bullish on oil. Double bottom. If you read my thread closely, you'll see I've been bullish on oil all along, and still am.
I've been waiting for the opportune moment, to short crude oil. This is it mate,........ savy?? With fair weather and natural gas going down, crude will fall back to $60 soon, methinks. To anyone buying crudsies at $64, I say: "To what point and purpose? You don't want to be doing that, mate. Your funeral."
Some people should read the weekly petroleum status report before they short. "Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged over 21.6 million barrels per day, or 1.8 percent more than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million barrels per day, or 1.0 percent above the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged over 4.3 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 4.1 percent above the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is up 3.6 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year." Demand is up big time, Captain Jack. Your shorts might be takin' on water really soon.
Now let's see if we're square. You duly noted that 'Total products supplied are up 1.8 percent more than same time last year' But what be of the prices paid at market during the same time, mate?? They're up 42.2 percent......savy?? That's interesting. That's VERY interesting.
Yep, it sure is. That's because supply is constrained, and the increased prices haven't destroyed any demand (yet). That means "the economy" will chug along with higher and higher energy prices for quite a while. My guess for the hurricane that drives prices over $80/bbl - Hurricane Kirk. http://geography.about.com/od/physicalgeography/a/2006names.htm