Oil Has Topped

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Pabst, Jul 18, 2006.

  1. Pabst


    In case you missed it I stated this important fact yesterday.


  2. BCE


    Nothng personal, but it didn't take a genius to figure that the spike in oil was a bit overdone, overbought. And as Jayford said in the other thread, "Way overbought with no fundamentals even close to supporting that price.":)
  3. Pabst


    How many u short? And BTW, a break in energy will NOT spur any sort of sustainable rally in equities.

  4. BCE


    Not short now. Just caught part of the selloff. Wasn't sure what was driving it but it seems, like we're saying, it was just overbought with not enough real world reasons for the runup.
  5. BCE


    Well not just a break in energy and I wasn't talking about any sustainable rallies. Just a short term, emphacize short term, bounce.
  6. pv150


  7. segv


    I have said it before here, but I will say it again. You are shorting a market for a product with strongly increasing demand, limited supply, and capped production. Any supply disruption, or even a hint of a threat of an imagined non-existant supply disruption, will send prices soaring right through their "top". You are shorting oil right in front of what is projected to be another record hurricane season, and right in front of the possibiity of an expanded war in the middle east. Good luck.

  8. As long as the tensions between Saudi and Iran are on the surface as they are now, AND the confrontation remains in Iraq/Lebanon/Syria, the forecast should be for pumps running overtime and production limits a thing of the past. Iran in particular is probably gearing up to sell as much as possible in the short run. Knowing this Saudi will probably follow suit trying to get their share of higher prices for as long as they last. Just my notion.
  9. Pabst


    If all those "expectations" weren't already in place there would've been the opportunity to set up a short at $75. The bull case here is predicated by what may happen. I don't KNOW that there's going to be a prolonged war and as I live in Miami I'm certainly not sure about a 'cane blowin' through the States.......
  10. contango


    Over the past year the average dip in crude prices has been about $5 and tends to last about 1-2 weeks before it resumes its upward trend. This recent 3-4 day dip has been quicker than average and looks like an over-reaction to an over-reaction. The fundamentals in the crude market went out the window ages ago. However, the bull trend still appears to be reigning supreme and we're entering hurricane season now. No hurricanes yet but at these prices any news of one hitting the gulf again could see us breaking $80.
    #10     Jul 19, 2006