Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by ssternlight, Aug 26, 2005.
Nice move there...
2% drop in 6 minutes.
CNBC: just a technical reaction. LOL
At the same time (give or take), stocks shot up and bonds dropped. It was a very weird move. But now stocks are moving back down, though bonds are staying down (which is good because I'm buying here).
Hurricane Katrina appears to be heading towards the LA/MS/AL area http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145105.shtml?3day?large. If this happens, it will hurt the rigs and refiners in that area. I wouldn't be surprised to see oil up sharply on Monday.
As an aside, ever since the Wal-Mart warning caused by high oil prices, higher oil prices have been pushing the stock market down (lower earnings) and pushing up bonds (slower economic growth means the Fed won't have to raise rates as much). Currently I am long bonds and short stocks (I don't trade oil).
Hurricane did'nt effect oil rigs anyway anyhow. I short the 10 year note and QM today. Both trades are to take advantage of short term corrections.
My data indicates the following situation for bonds/stocks/oil:
OIL: While the trend is still up, it's price has been going up too fast since July 21st. It's about 3 dollars too high.
STOCKS: While the trend is flat, the Dow is about 300 points below the level where it should be.
BONDS: Like stocks, trend is flat and price undervalued. 05Sep contract on a 10 Yr Note should be close to 114'00.
I'm thinking about getting long on oil, stocks and bonds because there's more room on the upside for all of them and a long position in stocks would constitute a good hedge to a long oil position.
Are you still short the 10 Year Note?
Expect Crude Oil to rise to a price never before seen in the history of the world during the earlier hours of Monday, August 29, 2005.
Went short at pretty much the high of day. Shorted after the double intraday top that tested confluence of resistance. eg. Spinning top (candle stick) followed by narrow range day, then todays weakness. Fib retracement( taken from yearly low to high), trend break, over bought at upper price channel etc.
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