I can see no compelling reason for why the market is going much lower. Rising oil, gold, food and falling dollar hasn't had the bearish impact a lot of people had predicted. Neither has the imaginary recession of the fake credit crunch. What a lot of people don't understand about a free market economy is that as one sector falters another one rises, which cancels out the downside. Rising oil, metals and food may be bad for retailers, but it is good for refiners and material companies. A falling dollar is good for exporters. It all works out in the end. The consumer was though to be 'tapped out' according to the bears, but they failed to realize that the falling dollar would lead to an influx of foreign consumers buying US goods and that consumers have huge access to credit from credit cards. The 'credit crunch' and 'liquidity crisis' never was. The reason why Mastercard and Visa atock are doign so well is because people still have access to tons of credit and liquidty. No one cares if some obscure derivitive fails. People need credit cards to pay for gas and food and will continue to max them out and pay interest for a long time to come. It all works out.
Paulron â if youâre going to give credit to someone for making a call, give credit to the timing of the call, not the call itself. In the circumstance you refer to, all ST did was say âthe market would go back upâ. Last year, in November he was saying the market would retest the highs by the end of the year and he was miserably incorrect. Of course, if youâre a buy-and-hold investor, sure â STâs the man. But it doesnât take a whole lot of skill to simply say the market will eventually go back up again. We all know it will. The trick is when. I could simply point my compass North and begin my trek to the North Pole. Iâll eventually get there. But itâs much more rewarding and a better trip if I actually use the map. Traders try to seize opportunities in both directions. They donât just buy and hold for eventual profit sometime in the unknown future. Thatâs investing. So is ST a good investor? I would argue he is - on a long term basis. But we all laugh when he makes these calls because we know the guy is just flipping a coin when it comes to trading.
imo metals and foreign bonds might be the next stop for the massive liquidity to move into. brazil might have another year of big gains ahead of itself.
Ivan: What I meant to say is more akin to "a broken clock is right twice a day" - I agree with you Stock: I won't even respond to the nonsense you just passed off as economic theory.
My mistake. I thought you were actually thinking he knew his arse from a hole in the ground when it came to...well, anything.
I've been right since 2006. No bear market, no recession. If there is a bear market I said I'll cancel my account but it never happened and never will, although it came very close to a bear market in March. Just 22 more points lower on the spx and it would have been one.
That's a bit unfair. Just because someone has no idea about supply chains doesn't mean they can't be intuitively correct about economies and markets. As you say nobody can predict when things are going to happen, just as they can't predict to what extent a trend will continue (I nicked that off Soros, BTW). We've all been correct at some point, either through logical reasoning or dumb luck but, if what you're doing is working then why change it? All the information in the World doesn't take away from the fact that stock markets have been rising for decades, on the back of a growing money supply, human ingenuity, greed, desperation etc etc etc. I don't see how an additional 2-3 billion participants in the race will do anything but increase all those inputs. Of course it could be quite rocky for the next 5-10 years. FWIW I'd say being mostly in cash *right now* isn't a bad thing at all.
I thought FSLR was your favorite play @ 305, stock_trad3r ??? And whatever happened to RIMM, GOOG, AAPL and POT, MOS???