OIL & GAS trader: How high prices will go after Iran get sanctioned

Just like everybody knew that Iraq was a threat to the security of the world?

 

Maybe they would prefer to sell it to us dumb westerners for $60/bbl instead of burning it to create electricity

 

Lots of interesting thoughts here. But, the bottom line is this: Iran will never be allowed to maintain nuclear weapons.....period.

 

This hypothesis is unconvincing for several reasons. The days of currency wars are over because the markets are much more efficient today. Also, no one wants to suddenly dump dollars, including our enemies, because too may people own dollars and everyone knows it would have adverse effects on the global economy, including their own economies. What is happening instead is a steady diversification in the reserve currency portfolio, as the world contains more nations with stable governments and sophisticated financial infrastructures. There is also a lot of new wealth, but it doesn’t make sense to just put it all in one pot anymore. This diversification is happening anyway, despite Iranian bravado.

There is nothing wrong with a dollar depreciating over a longer period of time. And if you look at a USD-EUR chart (before the Euro, a basket of European currencies), you will see that the U.S. Dollar had depreciated before. People make the mistake of linking slow appreciation/depreciation of national currencies with the health of their national economies.

Iran wants to gain global influence and power, like anyone else. It contains an Islamist government with its own set of visions and policies it would like to sell to the world and have the world respect. Iran has managed to work around America’s global influence and form economic and political alliances. It has plenty of oil to sell to a thirsty China, who will buy anything from anyone, regardless of anything. It also helps to have a climate where many people in the West believe that America’s demise will cure the common cold.

Nevertheless, America has no economic interdependency with Iran, like other Western nations. And thanks to America’s policies, Iran could never impose it’s anti-Western stance on OPEC and most of the world’s oil supply because we went to work against Iran as soon as it formed its Islamist state. We isolated Iran and helped Saddam’s war with Iran in the past, and now we have Iraq today.

Iran can price its own oil supply any way it wants. But a REAL impact on the price of oil would be Iran’s ability to impose its policies on most of the World’s oil supply –something America kept from happening.

 

Iran has plenty of oil for itself, and if they produce less, some other country will produce more, because as I mentioned in my other post, thanks to America’s policies, Iran never could influence the global oil supply. Sure they want nuclear technology but the idea that they are using the technology for power generation alone goes against political common sense. They are playing the predictable political cat and mouse game until they have the bomb.

 

"They are playing the predictable political cat and mouse game until they have the bomb."

Why not pay $10Billion to Cash Starved Pakistanis or Totally Starved North Koreans and buy half dozen nukes that would fit their missiles and that would be the end of the story. You have brought up important fact or possibility that is being overlooked in this 'cat and mouse' game...............that Iran might already have the nukes and they are bringing the stage to climax before declaring the nuclear assets in possession. All the while benefit from the higher oil prices as the stage is reaching the climax. With extra resources at hand, once the US leaves Iraq, which it is dearly wanting to, Iran exerts its influence on the shiaite majority in Iraq and comes out as a Islamic power to rekon with....one with educated population, fundamental agenda, lots of oil, biggest military in Islamic world, and directly and indirectly controlling the own and Iraqi oil reserves. Then they will start transacting oil in Euros and try to crash the dollar and take toll on the US economy and military might and thus the political influence in the world.

I am not willing to live in a world where US is not the leader....not under German fascists or British snobs or Russian/Chinese commies or anyone else with 'exotic' agenda. It would be a very chaotic world with lots of wars and famines.

EVEN IF IRAN HAS THE NUKES ALREADY, IT IS BIGGEST RESPONSIBILITY OF US/NATO TO TAKE/DESTROY THESE NUKES AND KEEP IRAN IN A CHECK.

 

Oil futures are running up, should break $65 today.

I wonder how the markets will react to $65 oil?

That's a key psychological barrier broken...
Recently the markets have been ignoring rising oil prices. Maybe at this level, it will get their attention.

 

It's unbelievable. How high would oil prices be able to increase because of such countries like Iran and Nigeria?