OIL & GAS trader: How high prices will go after Iran get sanctioned

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Nana Trader, Jan 13, 2006.

  1. I know sanction will be coming, because regime don't give damn shit about any sanction and they made iranian people mentally prepared so they don't bow to such demands against what they call national pride

    Sanction against Iran partly means no more Oil and Gas buying from world 4th largest producer (2nd world reserve), am i right?

    Now, if sanction comes, I see iran can go ahead for many years and it's just matter of time that sanctions fails, they have so much cash reserve that they pay all their contracts in cash today, (Even russia don't pay in cash) so can sustain any pressure, even Russia and china (iran Allies) obey all sanctions tems.

    How high oil and gas prices can go, let say if no more oil and gas bought from Iran for at least 2 years?
    -Will it reach $130-$150? or may be more $200?
    -Will Middle-east Arab countries forced to produce more for today prices? Historicaly was something like this acceped by oil producers?
  2. Sam123

    Sam123 Guest

    Contrary to what all the naysayers want to believe, Iraq’s oil production should ramp up and produce more than it ever did, if Iran is ever sanctioned in this manner.

    Btw, I’ve been saying that Iraq has the second largest reserves, but based on the 2005 estimates, Iraq is now a close third (115 billion) to Iran (126 billion).
  3. taodr


    In my opinion sanctions against Iran is what the US and Europe really desire. Iran will have to sell their oil on black market and buyers will demand much lower prices and this will cause problems for OPEC. That what happened with Saddam Hussein. European countries were buying oil from 3rd parties who were just in betweens. It will bring the price of oil down.
  4. toc


    Iranians are going to play the 'costly and foolish' stubborn brinkmanship just like Saddam did in 90s and in turn cause suffering and stress on its people. They will certainly try to scuttle the oil supplies in the region and that will raise the oil prices by quite a bit.

    Any good mpg motorbikes on recommenation atleast will help save a chunk in the summer!
  5. Iran sereve is at least twice as much Iraq, they just found a new reserve that can feed iran for nearly another 75 years alone, that's why recently john mackine said iran is sleeping on sea of Oil, why they need nuclear power generator

    Meantime i was told there are some restriction imposed on finding new reserves for foreign oil companies in Iran
  6. You are not updated, Iranian don't live like Saudis and gulf state arab countries, they are living on basic needs (no luxeries), and iran said to have enough cash reserve to feed whole nation for several years (They usually didn't spend much money on infrastructure and domestic spending, most iranian cities have to come up with their own budget, except Tehran)

    Also regional countries in no way can catch up with time needed to produce enough oil to meet today market demand, resulting high demand, less supply

    Pumping oil , converting and distributing it requires TIME
  7. US is in no win situation against Iran

    Artical from yahoo today main stories

    Most experts say Iran would be hurt if its energy exports are targeted, since oil and gas sales amount to 69 percent of the country's annual budget.

    But in an energy-hungry world, prohibiting OPEC's second largest producer from doing international business would be a double-edged sword — even a one-day disruption in natural gas deliveries from Russia this month sent the European Union into emergency mode.

    "Even for nations that don't directly import from Iran, any disruption in imports affects prices," said Valerie Marcel, energy specialist at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. "And Asia, with its dependence on Iranian energy, would be directly hurt."

    Friedemann Mueller of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin warned that pulling the daily 2.7 million barrels of Iranian oil off the market "would set off an enormous price movement."

    Israel and the United States, the two nations Iran considers its most implacable enemies and the most likely to resort to such means, have refused to categorically rule out such action. But they say it's not in the cards anytime soon. And their reluctance is understandable.

    Iran's nuclear installations are scattered and hidden, and intelligence on them is weak. That would rule out the success of a single devastating airstrike of the kind Israel carried out against Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981.

    Only the United States would be capable of carrying out the other combat scenario — a full scale invasion to topple the regime. But it has its hands full in Iraq.

    And U.S. military strategists recognize that invading Iran — large, rugged, and with forces led by battle-hardened veterans of the 1980-1988 war against Iraq — could backfire.

    "I think the people would unite behind their leadership — even those critical of the leadership now," said Albright. "They would be willing to live under all kinds of hardship to battle an invader."
  8. Iran's present leaders are close to being overthrown. This is why that fool running the country now is so vocal. He is not doing it to appear strong to the world. He is doing it to appear strong to the Iranian people. Iran's people are the most pro western of all peoples in the middle east. He knows that and is putting fear into their hearts.

    He survived one known murder attempt recently. He may not survive the next one.

  9. OK - here's my macro opinion and why this garbage above won't come to pass.

    Today's conference with Bush and Merklel of Germany marked a sea-change in Europe's viewpoint towards the middle east and the muslim fundamentalist issue.

    Congratulations, french muslim rioters, british terrorists, and spanish train bombers. Your summer of rioting and limited terror attacks served only to cause a massive reality check by the european powers and make them say - "Oh my god!?!? whatever were we thinking?!?!?" You singlehandedly did more to persuade pacifistic Germany, France, and Spain that your incursions must be stopped.

    This is the beginning of a second coalition to handle Iran the way that Iraq should have been handled. Its fine to put egg on the US's face, but its another thing to threaten everyone. Furthermore, China is trying to gain access to Iran's oil outside of the open marketplace, and that probably can't be allowed.

    Here's what's going to go down.

    1. Sanctions applied by UN
    2. Israel, claiming a security risk (bibi is next in line for PM spot post sharon and he's mossad and a hawk of hawks), takes out Iranian nuke facilities. (bunker buster nukes anyone?)
    3. UN backs israel
    4. Iran either backs down and plays nice OR
    5. Something happens to warrant regime change
    6. US provides the force projection into Iran - quick air war like beginning of Gulf I and II
    7. Worldwide coalition of land forces provides occupying/peacekeeping function like currently in Iraq, led by europe, which allows europe permanent access to iranian oil (see where this is going?)
    8. Israel shuts down terrorism out of unfriendlies (syria, lebanon)
    9. Business as usual with 1% drain on world GDP and china pissed off.

    Possible problems
    1. Iranian nuke detonated in NYC or DC, after which most of the mideast turned into radioactive glass.
    2. China threatens land based war due to denial of access to resources (not likely)
    3. North Korea uses this as the chance to grab south korea (bad idea )

    Ya heard it here first fellow ET'ers... this is a BIG deal. Hope lots of the stuff doesn't come to pass, but sure glad I got long energies at the beginning of the year!

    P.S. Battle hardened veterans of a war 20 years ago? Most of those guys need knee replacements by now. Ridiculous.
  10. Heres my scenario: With sanctions blocked in the UN security council by China and/or Russia, Bush gives tacit approval to Israel to strike Iran, which turns the Iraqui shia against us nad ignites a much larger insurrection against us, supported by Iran, which maybe we then have to invade. Muslim sentiment across the Mideast is further inflamed nad united against us. OPEC takes the opportunity to embargo the west just like they did in the 70's when there was an Israeli war and tight supply situation in the west. They can still sell to the Chinese for subsistence and might not have much choice if their domestic situations deteriorate.
    #10     Jan 13, 2006