Yeah, basically. I've always been taught that "the relationship between price, supply, and demand" and "invisible hand of the market" are the same. So, sorry, I'll be more clear again: HEY, EVERYONE! THIS GUY IS PROBABLY RIGHT! HE THINKS SUPPLY IS MAINLY THE PROBLEM, AND I AGREE WITH HIM! Glad we got that cleared up.
haha. I only said that to invoke more people to come prove me wrong. If they can and it makes sense I'll be the first person to change my mind. I just don't see anything else that makes sense.
Basically, the diverging views can be broken down into those who believe oil supply is limited/diminishing and those who believe oil is as plentiful as hydrogen. Both are theories. Now, imo the market has priced in both scenarios/theories, however, the market also does not 'know' the level of oil within the earth, leaving much to be determined. this is all pretty obvious; i am just restating it.
Good points. I don't really see how people can think we are "awash" in oil. Supply of liquid fuel production has peaked at 85 million barrels per day. Its never gone above that. Despite the fact that Saudi Arabia is producing oil as fast as they can. OPEC is a non issue. Despite also that we have way more rigs and drilling sites than before...yet we still can't get above that number. I'm not saying that we're going to run out of oil next year. Or even anytime soon. In fact we will never run out simply because it will just get to expensive for anyone to use. But if there isnt enough oil to sustain the insane growth of China, India, the Middle East and America for the near future then THAT is a supply issue. Dubai WILL be out of oil in a couple years. That's a proven fact and that's why they have made tourism and other industries so prevalent in their GDP. To think that theres enough oil to go around to EVERYBODY FOREVER is just denial.
damnit SEE. No one has any better, more rational points to make. This is why I believe what I believe.
sometime its easier to type up something you read on a bumper sticker than to bring a logical deduction to the discussion.
Hi there, It seems that China's Olympics may have contributed to both the spike last month and the decline in August. In my view, September will be a whole new ball game. See: http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=3082 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=a885VrvdMZ_8&refer=energy By the way, any thoughts on NYMEX not lowering margin requirements as price falls (I realize volatility stays high, but still)? Best trading, Jorge Edit: also http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAcQgE4f1uTo