Oil Falls Below $125 as U.S. Fuel Supplies Gain, Demand Drops

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by S2007S, Jul 23, 2008.

  1. S2007S


    Where are the oil bulls now pumping oil to 150++, what a joke, did anyone really think the run in oil was going to last, Im sure a few think oil is headed higher, it might take another run to new highs, but I highly doubt it. The demand is not there, and wont be for quite sometime. The demand is falling because of the recession the US and other countries are in, if you thought oil was going to skyrocket to $200 you were thinking like a fool, the economy cannot support $200 oil. Anytime you see the hype around any kind of sector or industry its time to sell. If you didnt notice cramer hyping it up and all media mentioning $200 a barrel you should have paid closer attention. Oil has come down, but in my opinion its still in a bubble.

    Oil Falls Below $125 as U.S. Fuel Supplies Gain, Demand Drops

    By Mark Shenk

    July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures fell below $125 a barrel for the first time in six weeks after a U.S. government report showed that fuel stockpiles increased as consumption tumbled to the lowest in more than a year.

    Gasoline supplies rose 2.85 million barrels last week, the Energy Department reported. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, climbed 2.42 million barrels. U.S. fuel demand averaged 19.9 million barrels a day, the lowest since January 2007.

    ``The inventory and demand numbers make it clear that demand is being affected by high prices and the weak economy,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. ``The 19.9 million barrel demand number is incredibly low and has to have the bulls worried.''

    Crude oil for September delivery fell $3.96, or 3.1 percent, to $124.46 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $124.30 a barrel, the lowest intraday price since June 5.

    Demand has dropped for three straight weeks, the Energy Department report showed. U.S. fuel consumption averaged 20.3 million barrels a day in the past four weeks, down 2.1 percent from a year earlier, the department said.

    Refineries operated at 87.1 percent of capacity last week, down 2.4 percentage points from the week before, according to the department. It was the lowest utilization rate since the week ended May 9. Refineries were forecast to operate at 89.5 percent of capacity last week, unchanged from the week before, according to the median of analyst estimates in the Bloomberg survey.

    Oil Stockpiles

    Crude-oil inventories dropped 1.56 million barrels to 295.3 million. Stockpiles were forecast to decline 675,000 barrels, according to the survey results.

    ``Any bullish impact from the crude-oil drop has been offset by rising product inventories in the face of falling refinery utilization rates,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis. ``This is another sign that demand is being hammered. You've reached a price level where there's a demand response.''

    Analysts were split over whether gasoline inventories rose or fell last week, the survey showed. Distillate supplies were forecast to rise 2.5 million barrels.

    Gasoline for August delivery fell 10.1 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $3.036 a gallon in New York. Futures reached a record $3.631 a gallon on July 11.

    Lower Pump Prices

    Pump prices are following changes in futures. Regular gasoline, averaged nationwide, fell 1.3 cents to $4.042 a gallon, AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization, said today on its Web site. Pump prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17.

    Crude oil has tumbled 14 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11, as a stronger U.S. dollar limited the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation and high prices cut fuel consumption. Price also fell the past two days because a hurricane moved away from oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Oil and other commodities may drop further and the dollar increase if the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates to curb inflation. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser yesterday said rates should be raised.

    The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 107.84 yen at 1:59 p.m. in New York, from 107.33 yesterday. It reached 107.92, the highest since June 26. The U.S. currency appreciated 0.6 percent to $1.5693 per euro, from $1.5783.

    The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index, which tracks 26 raw materials, gained 29 percent in the first half of the year as the U.S. currency retreated 7.4 percent. The index has fallen 7.7 percent this month as the dollar has stabilized.

    Hurricane Dolly

    Hurricane Dolly came ashore in southern Texas today, where coastal residents sustained their first direct hit by a hurricane in almost a decade. Dolly packed sustained winds of 100 miles per hour as its eye hit South Padre Island, about 35 miles (50 kilometers) northeast of Brownsville, at 1 p.m. local time, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

    Dolly is the season's first hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, home to about a quarter of U.S. oil production. The storm has steered south of most rigs, which are off the East Texas and Louisiana shores.

    ``The chances of a rate increase before Labor Day on Sept. 1 have increased, which is good for the dollar and bad for energy prices,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. ``Dolly has turned out to be a non-event.''

    Brent crude oil for September settlement dropped $4.13, or 3.2 percent, to $125.42 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices climbed to a record $147.50 on July 11.
  2. JOEY O

    JOEY O

    Did Bush lifitng the ban on off-shore oil exploration trigger the massive drop in oil over the past 7 days? Or was it a decrease in demand? Bush lifted the ban 7 days ago and it appears to correlate with the drop in oil.
  3. Oil goes up 100% year over year, and US fuel demand drops 2%. Wow, that is really some amazing demand destruction you have there.

    Oil is in a secular bull market, there will be sharp pullbacks. Shorting oil at these levels is idiotic.
  4. The entire China consumption of oil is less than state of California alone; and India is less than half of China's.

    We were talking China and India driven oil price higher; :D
  5. I agree. I will short it should it (ever) break $95.
  6. S2007S


    Hey oil bulls is Oil still going to $200 or $300?

    OIL nearing $120 and most likely headed to $80 over the next 18 months. Reminds of every single bubble, they hype it up and then it falls apart AS IT ALWAYS DOES. How did you oil bulls not see this coming.

    :p :p :p :p :p
  7. You are a CLOWN.

    You were the same guy that has been bashing Bernanke month after month after month about creating INFLATION in his attempt to save the banking system.

    Commodities are getting pounded.
    Several funds are liquidating.
    Have you seen what Corn today has been doing over the past 6 weeks?

    Can you say LIMIT DOWN?

    Of course not.
    You have no clue.
  8. Too funny.

    There is a $25 dollar "pullback" in oil and you get ALL excited as if your opinion has been validated . . . You are a clown.
  9. S2007S


    I was saying he was going to create insane inflation and thats what he has done, the ONLY reason commodities are dropping is on slowing concerns due to the fact the US is in a RECESSION. You cannot have high commodity prices in a slowing economy.

    The run up in commodities the last 6 months is not justifiable my any means.

    I have no clue thats why Im long DUG and SMN.

    NO clue. Right.
  10. S2007S


    A $25 pullback is a big deal because so many oil bulls were calling for $150, $160, $175 and even $300 a damn barrel so a $25 drop in oil prices to me is very signifcant when you have fools who think oil is going to skyrocket, reminds me of the dot com days and housing bubble, they always end the same way, when will people wake up and realize bubbles arent sustainable.
    #10     Aug 4, 2008